The price of ferrous metal scrap has dropped to a minimum since the beginning of the year
Forecast prices for ferrous metal scrap this week decreased to 23 thousand rubles. per ton, which has become a minimum since the beginning of the year. Metallurgical enterprises reduce purchase prices after a short -term increase in scrap cost since April, when some of the manufacturers replenished the reserves. Scrap prices can continue to decrease until the end of the month and remain at minimum levels during the summer, which will contribute to a decrease in scambox.
Since May 12, most metallurgical enterprises announced a decrease in purchasing prices for ferrous metal scrap by 1 thousand rubles. Thus, the forecast cost of this metallurgical raw materials decreased to 23 thousand rubles. per ton in the Central Federal District (on CPT terms, including transportation tariff). This is the minimum value since the beginning of 2025, cites the head of the Metals & Mining Intelligence (MMI), Alexander Shchirinov, head of the scrap market.
The current value of scrap is not a price bottom yet, the expert is sure.
According to him, at current prices and falling demand from steel enterprises in 2025, the lotomatic in the country hardly exceed 18.5 million tons in the event of a positive scenario in the steel market, that is, a decrease in production to no more than 65–69 million tons of liquid steel according to the results of the year. In this case, the scam will be reduced by 9% relative to 2024.
Lomin of ferrous metals is used in electrostal -foil production, which accounts for about a third of steel production in the country. According to Chermet Corporation, in April, the smelting of steel in Russia decreased by 7.2% year by the year, to 5.7 million tons. In January – April, production decreased by 4.5%, to 23.1 million tons. BCS notes that the April issue of steel in the Russian Federation has become minimal since the beginning of the year.
Alexander Shikhranov predicts that according to the results of May, prices for ferrous metal scrap in the Russian Federation can decrease by another 1.5–2 thousand rubles. per ton, and quotes will remain at this level in June – August. The interviewed metallurgical companies did not answer Kommersant questions.
Even at the beginning of the month, the cost of this type of metallurgical raw materials, according to the experts surveyed by Kommersant, did not show significant negative dynamics.
According to the Rusmet rating agency, in April and early May, in the Central Federal District, ferrous metal scrap, excluding transportation, cost 19.65–19.9 thousand rubles. per ton. And in the first week of May, the growth of shipments was recorded.
In the Central and Ural federal districts, scrap prices rose by 1-2% from the beginning of April, export quotes showed positive dynamics in early May, says Boris Boris Bank, head of the securities market Boris Krasnozhenov. So, according to him, in the first week of May, Turkish metallurgists actively contracted new parties in order to replenish stocks before a long weekend in connection with the celebration of Kurban-Bayram in the region. Under these conditions, scrap prices rose on CFR conditions by Türkiye by $ 10, to $ 340 per ton, last week.
Viktor Tarnavsky, the head of the analytical department of the industry publication “Metal Substitution and Sales”, says that in April, the plants spent winter reserves and began to acquire scrap metal again. But, according to him, this will not be able to maintain the market for a long time, and the positive price dynamics will last a maximum of several weeks, while the enterprises replenish the warehouses. Mr. Krasnozhenov also notes that taking into account the general situation in the ferrous metallurgy sector, it is still impossible to talk about the beginning of the fundamental increase in prices for steel and metallurgical raw materials. “A significant part of the world manufacturers have become without integration in the raw material segment demonstrates negative profitability at the current price level,” he says.
Director of the Ramlom.com Association Viktor Korotny notes that each metallurgical plant always has at least a monthly supply of raw materials and its purchase goes from ordering for manufactured products and the formation of production plans. And experts and industry participants do not observe growth in the consumption of metal products. As noted in the BCS, April Statistics on the production of steel indicates a still unfavorable situation in the market due to low domestic demand. The latter can change only if the key rate decreases, which will be followed by revival in the construction sector, or if international sanctions are softened, which will revive the export capabilities of Russian metallurgists, Mr. Korotny believes.
