The potential export cost of wheat from the regions decreased by 1% per week
The potential export value of wheat from the Russian regions decreased by 1%per week. A negative trend can be preserved by the growth of the fee and strengthening the ruble. The risk factor for exporters remains transport costs. They are growing, including due to the failures of Greek carriers, go to Russian ports. Old contracts support existing exports.
Netbeks (potential export cost of sale, minus duties and logistics costs), wheat on Fob Novorossiysk in Russia, last week, decreased by the previous one by 1%, follows from the data of the price of price indices (CCI). For 16 regions under consideration, the average indicator for March 28 amounted to 12.2 thousand rubles. per ton. The decrease was the most pronounced in the regions of Siberia. Netback in the Altai and Krasnoyarsk Territory to FOB Novorossiysk decreased by 1.5%, to 9 thousand and 8.7 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively. This week, the average non -back, according to the forecasts of the CCC, can decrease by another 1%.
The CC notes that non -backs are reduced under the pressure of a growing export duty. Its size from April 2 added 4%, to 1.9 thousand rubles. per ton.
The second key factor was a strong ruble, which is why the revenue of sellers decreased. Over the past six months, Netbacks under pressure from the course have lost 5%, they note in the CCI.
Dmitry Rylko, CEO of the Institute of Conjuncture of the Agrarian Market, calls the margin of wheat exporters virtually negative. He draws attention to the unwillingness of farmers to reduce the purchase prices and loss of wheat in world markets.
According to Rosstat, the gross harvest of wheat in 2024 amounted to 82.6 million tons, having lost 11% a year by the year.
The prognosis of the “Council of Ministers” for 2025 is a reduction by another 4.7%, to 78.7 million tons. The volume of reserves in the south of the country is now twice as lower than a year earlier, says the director of the “SECECON” Andrei Sizov. According to the company, on March 26, the cost of a third class wheat in the domestic market amounted to 15.8 thousand rubles. per ton, adding about 30% a year to the year.
Andrei Sizov says that exporters continue to ship and with negative yield. They cannot reduce momentum due to obligations as part of financing, he explains. Dmitry Rylko explains that exports are now supported by old contracts and infrastructure owners, whose costs may be lower. Some importers can also buy Russian wheat at prices above current markets, he says.
1.9 thousand rubles per ton
draws up an export duty on Russian wheat from April 2.
According to Rusagrotrans, the average export price of Russian wheat with protein 12.5% last week decreased by $ 1, to $ 254 per ton. The interlocutor of Kommersant in the grain market says that more expensive supplies are carried out to Iran. This is due to the country’s specific requirements for wheat quality. Payments under Iranian contracts, according to the Kommersant source, can be carried out with a delay of two to three months.
Dmitry Rylko expects a further decrease in world wheat prices. This is due to an increase in crop forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere. A negative factor for Russian exporters can be the growth of transport costs.
Argus analysts in their review pay attention to the increase in the cost of grain transportation by the Handysize from Russian ports of the Black Sea basin to the ports of North Africa in March by February. The trend is traced despite limited demand and may be associated with the inclusion of several Russian ports, including in Novorossiysk, in the 16th EU sanctions list. Some Greek carriers began to refuse to enter them, it is noted in Argus. In Demeter Holding (owns a Novorossiysk grain terminal and shares in the NKHP grain terminal), they refused to comment. Mr. Rilko notes that the cost of freight can increase, including due to a deterioration in the situation with secondary sanctions: no problems with payments are less. Negative conjuncture may be one of the factors in the slowdown of wheat exports, the Central Civil Code note.
