The potato crisis reveals how the Russian economy is feeling – really

Potato prices in Russia have tripled over the past year. At the beginning of May, the so important base product equivalent to SEK 10 kilos cost, according to the Russian independent news site Meduza.

SEK 10 kilos may seem a bit, or at least not remarkably much for potatoes, but then it should be remembered that an average monthly salary in Russia is about SEK 8,000.

The main explanation for the price increase is last year’s poor harvest. At the same time, the agricultural sector has been severely affected by rising prices for fuel, fertilizers and transport. Even President Vladimir Putin has admitted that potatoes are now a deficiency in Russia, according to Moscow Times.

But it’s not just The potato price that has skyrocketed in recent years. In 2024, the price of onions increased by just over 48 percent and butter by 36 percent, according to Russia’s statistical authority Rosstat.

Torbjörn Becker, head of the Eastern Economic Institute at the Stockholm School of Economics, believes that the rampant food prices give an insight into how the Russian economy is doing – actively.

According to him, there is reason to believe that inflation in Russia is higher than what the official statistics show, that is, 10 percent.

– Much of the economic statistics that come from Russia are now part of a narrative that is that Russia is strong, that the economy is doing well and that the sanctions against the country do not matter. It is part of the war propaganda.

With its adjusted inflation figures, the Russian regime simply does not choose to show the whole truth, he says.

Bland -painted inflation figures Also means that the gross domestic production, the size of Russia’s economy, appears to be greater than it is.

– If you push down the official inflation figure, it looks like your economic growth has been better than it actually was. It is really just air in the form of price increases.

How bad is it for Russian economy? According to Torbjörn Becker, it is difficult to say with certainty. But some things you know:

– All countries have a budget restriction to relate to – if you get less paid for their commodity exports at the same time as you want to spend more money, it is not long -term sustainable, he says and continues:

– This leads to major imbalances in the economic system.

40 percent of The Russian Treasury goes to fight in Ukraine, according to the 2025 budget. Although the war industry is booming and unemployment is kept down, there are sectors that may stand back in favor of the war.

– Healthcare, school and roads, for example, do not get rid of the level it would have been otherwise, says Torbjörn Becker.

Similar situation in Sweden would probably have led to anger and protests. But in a country like Russia, where democracy, freedom of speech and legal certainty are limited, it is difficult to know what people really think. The opinion polls that exist should be taken with « a huge pinch of salt », according to Becker, as « wrong » opinions run the risk of leading to reprisals.

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