The number of loan agreements of developers with banks decreases for three consecutive months

The number of loan agreements of developers with banks decreases for three months in a row, from November 2024, the Central Bank evidence. According to experts, the trend was preserved after January 2025, and even intensified as a result of high rates on the market and a decreasing demand for a mortgage. Analysts note that this can lead to a proposal deficit in 2027, when, according to forecasts, bets on market mortgages will again become attractive.

According to the Central Bank of the Central Bank on February 1, in January of this year, the largest decrease in the number of loan agreements of banks with developers using the escrow accounts for settlements under participation in shared construction – by 255, to 11.013 thousand. In monetary terms, the amount of current loan agreements amounted to 20.38 billion rubles. The indicator decreases for three consecutive months, which has never been in the entire history of observations since 2019, when the use of escrow accounts in financing shared construction has become mandatory for everyone. Moreover, a decrease in the number of contracts is accelerated: in November, their number fell by 19, and in December – already by 43. So far, this indicator has decreased as much as possible by 105 agreements in January 2022.

According to experts, the dynamics of the number of design financing agreements depends on the dynamics of launching new projects from developers. According to the head of the analytical center « Dom.rf » Mikhail Goldberg, in January – February of this year, the volume of apartment buildings launched into the construction of apartment buildings amounted to 4.5 million square meters. m, which is 23% less than in the first two months of 2024. “This is explained by a decrease in demand, which is noticeable in terms of issuing a mortgage,” he explained. According to him, in January, banks provided 32 thousand loans (minus 57% by January 2024) for 127 billion rubles. (minus 53%).

At the same time, the portfolio of housing under construction against the backdrop of the slowdown of launches decreased by 0.8% from the beginning of the year, to 113.5 million square meters. m on March 1, 2025, more than half of the volume of apartments with entry this year has already been sold.

“The market as a whole can be characterized as still in equilibrium, however, the risks of housing deficiency are growing in a number of regions, and in some it is excess,” the Dom.rf analytical center notes.

According to Mikhail Goldberg, the current portfolio will be completed, since developers working on design financing (98% of housing under construction) are financially stable, while more than a third of the debt account for projects where the funds on escrow accounts completely cover the design debt and the rate on it is less than 4%.

However, according to him, there is already a risk that against the backdrop of high market rates, developers can continue Slow down With the withdrawal of new projects to the market, reducing their launch to 30–35 million square meters. m this year (48 million square meters – in 2024). “This can create a deficit of a proposal starting since 2027, by this time the Central Bank predicts a rate of rate to 8%,” says Mikhail Goldberg. Thus, in his opinion, the scenario in which demand will return, and the volume of housing on sale will be reduced. “Already today it is necessary to support the proposal, and one of the decisions is subsidizing the rate as part of project financing for individual projects,” he said.

Experts believe that the trend to reduce the number of concluded project financing agreements this year will continue.

The managing director of the expert RA rating agency Yuri Belikov notes that the market segment of mortgages is frozen with high rates, and the preferential one is completely dependent on the family program with its requirements and restrictions. “There will be plenty of free areas for the future market recovery, taking into account the dispersal of development in recent years, so the number of new project financing agreements will decrease and continue to decline in the coming months,” he said. In turn, the director of the group of ratings of the financial institutions of the NKR agency Egor Lopatin draws attention to the fact that in addition to the strict monetary conditions for dynamics, the distribution of builders from developers negatively affects the market of programs. “When maintaining the current level of the key rate, as well as the conditions of preferential programs, the increase in the volume of mortgages on the DDU is unlikely following the results of the first quarter in comparison with the third or fourth quarters of the last year,” he says.

Maxim Builov