The noise of the scandals barely takes its toll (for now) | Spain

« The song that sounds the most is’ corruption, corruption, corruption, » an advertisement that advertised an ad The manifestation of the PP under the slogan « mafia or democracy ». Undoubtedly, that has been the omnipresent melody for more than a year in Congress, in political gatherings and in a large part of the informative digital universe (or a pseudoinformative). Outside, it is more than doubtful that the Machacona song has constituted a bombing. According to the latest CIS barometer – with data that, unlike their vote estimates, most experts consider reliable – the epigraph « corruption and fraud » occupies the 13th position in the classification of citizen concerns, headed by the house.

Only 7% of those surveyed by the Public Institute quote corruption as one of the three main problems in the country. The figure is more than five points below 12.3% in March 2024, When he broke out Koldo case. Since then – he is waiting for the impact of Leire Díez episode– It has been placed at little significant levels. Even at times like The judicial appearance as accused of the president’s wifein July last year, it did not reach more than 6.4%. No comparison with the astronomical 39.2% of June 2018, after the judgment of the Gürtel case and the Motion of censure against Mariano Rajoy. So it was the second most cited problem in the surveys.

The landscape drawn by the CIS does not provide from that they offer private institutes. In a recent one Consulting Ipsos Survey for The avant -garde, Only 5% indicate corruption as one of its great concerns, three points more than in November. « There has been a rebound, » says Paco Camas, director of research of the poll company, « but, although it occupies a lot of space in the media agenda, it has not permeated citizens enough. It is not so much that it does not worry as it does not appear among the priorities of the people, it looks like a second order problem. »

In the same survey it appears as the first problem, ahead of the house, the grouped under the “Political/Political/Governments” label. The CIS has saved similar conclusions diluting the same issue by separating it between different epigraphs. One of them could be linked by its statement to corruption: « the bad behavior of politicians. » In the last barometer there are some more, 13.3%. Even so, three and a half points less than a year ago.

Is corruption, which monopolizes the speech of the PP, a powerful electoral claim? César Calderón, who has worked as a consultant for the two great games, recounts an old anecdote. In Argentina of 1973, the Peronists chanted without blush on their rallies: « See, see, see/ what a bullshit manga/ we vote for a dead one and a whore and a cuckold. » « AND Perón razed, ”recalls Calderón. The consultant resorts to other historical examples – the American Richard Nixon In the same 1973, the German Gerhard Schröder In 2005 or our Felipe González in 1993 and Rajoy in 2011 – to conclude: “except in cases where it affects the life of people, corruption is not even one of the issues that incline the vote. Even in those cases the maximum thing it gets is to inhibit the softest electorate of a game to stay at home. But almost never to jump the ideological wall and vote for the rival game. like the one we live. ”

Jordi Muñoz, associate professor of political science at the University of Barcelona and former director of CEO, known as the known as Catalan cis: « Polarization contexts are little conducive to measuring the electoral incidence of corruption. Left voters do not give credibility to the accusations that come from the right or related media, and vice versa. In general, corruption has few electoral effects, except in economic crisis contexts. »

« Every day, a scandal, » repeats the PP in a speech that does not cease to rise in decibels, with more typical terms of the underworld as « Capo » or « Criminal Organization ». But just that excess noise, that battery of accusations in which they are mixed, the hypothetical and sometimes even the false, can contribute to subtract efficiency to the message. « Many cases come out, everything is denounced in a climate of permanent tension, it is exaggerated … With all that noise, complaints lose credibility, » says Belén Barreiro, director of the 40DB Survey Institute.

Barreiro introduces a term, « saturation », which also arises in the mouth of his colleague Camas or the political consultant Eduardo Bayón. « Noise saturation causes people to begin to disconnect significantly, » observes the latter. « There is a clear decrease in interest in national political news. We see it on television, which no longer reaches those audiences with three or four -hour political programs, as in the very politicized cycle that we live from 2008. » And rivet: « If you make a scandal of each case, or sometimes of bulos, and the speed that the information goes … the foot on foot has enough with its problems. »

The excitement of the last year is not perceived in voting estimates. All – less The exotic calculation of the CIS– They throw a clear majority of the right, but with the stagnant positions. Moreover, The last 40DB barometer. For the country and being It indicates that the PP has retreated almost three points in one year – from 35.5% to 32.8% – and the PSOE is practically the same – from 30% to 29.8% -. And that, says Barreiro, that almost two out of three respondents cite the « honesty » as the first quality they value in leaders. In the competition between these, Santiago Abascal surpasses Alberto Núñez Feijóo. And Vox is the most favored: he wins 2.6 points in one year and touches 14%.

The PP has completely assumed what specialists call a framework, that of corruption, which until it was not so long ago was very unfavorable because of its past scandals, Some still without judging. « Installing the framework of corruption to those who can benefit is Vox, » Muñoz reflects. « The PP still drags a stigma that is in the memory of many people. »

The most tangible performance for the popular can be to coese their own and demoralize to the left. Barreiro and Camas believe that this speech helps them reinforce the image of the country as chaos and Sánchez as a politician willing to preserve power. « Nor do they have much more to wear out the government, » says the Ipsos researcher. « Other more traditional issues such as the economy or international agenda do not give them room. » Calderón, assuming that the PP « has all the ballots » to win the next elections, argues: « His best trick is not to air corruption, but to be able to articulate credible proposals to attract the most moderate voter of the PSOE, such as housing, health, employment or taxes. Especially housing, which I fear is going to be the great issue of the next few years. »

Muñoz emphasizes that corruption can begin to make a dent when in the affected party or in the media of its orbit critical voices arise. Some of that It has begun to see these days in the PSOE with the case of Leire Díez. And in a tight electoral scenario, « a small quantitative change can have a great qualitative effect. » The invoice that is not yet perceived could be charged later.