The new European security architecture is impossible without Ukraine

A speech of the ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine (2021-2024), Valery stunned at the conference on security in Chatham House, March 6, 2025.

It is very important to be here, right in this hall and to talk about ours – I emphasize – a common future. The time when you could observe everything that was happening in Ukraine, you might have a way out.

Some of you may have foreseen all this, some have understood the coming changes – today it doesn't matter. The main thing is that we have to find out here and now what to do next for all of us.

Let's start with perhaps the most important thing to discuss – the concept of the world order. Simply put, for the balance of forces in world politics.

Now is not the time and there is no need to talk about how and how many times this world order has changed. It is enough to go back to the 1945 Yalten Conference, where leaders of the three winners decide the future of the post -war world.

The formation of a new world order was completed on August 2, 1945 in Potsdam, where the future was finally resolved (at least for the next more than four decades). Then the war began in history as the « Cold War ». This era ended in 1991 with the collapse of the USSR and the end of the two -pole confrontation.

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The world has continued to live in this old world order for some time, still based on the Yalten-Potsam system of international relations. Even in the same -pole world, the United States has been able to maintain peace and stability in the world with force. The power was replaced by money somewhere, but the world lived in a stable system. And this was even against the backdrop of increasing the number of countries in the world, which seemed to choose their future fate themselves.

It all changed on February 10, 2007, when Russian President Putin, a year before the end of his second presidential term, spoke at the Munich Security Conference. This speech may be considered a turning point in the review of the existing world order system.

« No one feels safe, no one can hide behind international law as behind a stone wall, » he said. Perhaps the West made a huge mistake by not listening to Putin's warnings and in no way adapted to the coming era, which brought us here.

In 2008, Putin began a war in Georgia and in 2014 in Ukraine. And in 2022 he attacked Ukraine with all possible means. As early as 18 years ago, Putin said, or rather warned that the unipolar model, which was actually aimed exclusively on servicing the interests of the United States and a chosen circle of countries, was not viable. At the same time, he said that China, India and other developing countries as a result of transformation will be perhaps the most important economies in the world.

Maybe today we can see how the countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America are trying to determine the global agenda. And what about Ukraine? Ukraine zealously entered the struggle and not only managed to give a decent resistance to the enemy, but also to prove and protect its role in the formation of the world order.

It was because of Ukraine, which seemed to lose the possibility of solving the problem with the war in 2023, mainly because of the fears of our partners, Russia was forced to openly create the so -called axis – the axis of evil. You all understand which is part of this axis. And just then, in 2024, when these countries made strategic agreements, we had to ask ourselves if it was not a continuation of the policy of reviewing the current world order system.

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Of course, it is difficult for Ukraine to fight on its own with the axis of evil, albeit with the help of partners, but still fights. The war in Ukraine became more and more global as a scale. The results were predictable. They are current today. In the end, the United States, China, Russia and Europe were not prepared for war from such an intensity level.

Human and economic losses in Ukraine, spending resources for war, migration, sanction policy, lack of cheap energy sources and markets, and other problems have become a colossal economic burden for the economies of all countries involved in the war, preventing their development and creating the risks of global crises.

After all, the war in Ukraine has practically exhausted economic and industrial « force » in most countries, especially in Russia, the US and Europe. They really do not have resources to continue hostilities, while the expansion of weapons production has proven to be something excessive, provided that agreements are reached to end the hostilities.

Therefore, it can be argued that there are formal reasons for reviewing the world order today.

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The starting point for such a review, of course, can be considered the upcoming end of the war in Ukraine and the formation of a new world order based on its results. In fact, the old world order itself is almost completely destroyed. For example, today it is obvious that the White House questioned the unity of the Western world. In addition, Washington is already trying to transfer the security and defense of Europe and its own forces, without the United States.

A series of US negotiations with Russia – for whose leader an arrest warrant has been issued – it confirms the fact that the White House is taking more and more oncoming steps to the Kremlin regime, fully realizing that in this case Europe can become a new target for Russia. An indisputable factor for this is the decision of the US cyberomanding to terminate any planning against Russia.

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It is obvious that non -recognition of Russian aggression by Washington is also a new challenge not only for Ukraine but also for Europe. This is enough to understand that not only Russia and the axis of evil are trying to destroy the world order, but the United States is actually destroying it completely.

I would like to note once again that the destruction of the old world order is also being done against the background of the rapid development of technology. With full confidence, we can say that it was the Russo-Ukrainian war that has become a catalyst for development, above all of military technology, which will probably become the basis of future global security. Because it was these changes that occurred to the battlefields of the Russo-Ukrainian War that led to a global crisis in the art of conducting operations and doctrines of NATO, among other processes. The classic large -scale operations with incredible resource consumption not only lost their relevance, but even became suicide. But only Ukraine and the axis of evil know about it.

It is not yet known whether all players who want a new world order are ready for it or need another war to understand it.

It is certainly known that a technological breakthrough has occurred not only in the military sector but also in all others, which will require restructuring of the economies of leading countries. Accordingly, both the needs and the priorities in the production of minerals have changed. Does the last statement not remind you of something familiar from history? Time will tell.

But we're still talking about Ukraine. In this difficult situation, it is thanks to its ability to resist during a full -scale war that Ukraine has indeed become the subject of international politics. You have to comply with Ukraine. This is already clear to everyone, even very powerful countries. Ukraine has not lost its independence. Despite the change in the strategy of enemies and threats from friends, Ukraine fights, even when it seems impossible, and quite effectively defeats the enemy.

Ukraine, you like it or not, de facto protects not only the eastern NATO border, but also the eastern border of Europe, which, by the way, can become a line of contact. Against the backdrop of recent United States' events and future security in Europe, as well as NATO's incense to oppose Russia, at least without the United States, Ukraine's positions are becoming more attractive to Europe. Of course, Ukraine still does not have its own nuclear weapons, so it pays for its freedom with its own blood, but its armed forces show that it is probably a new architecture of European security in the near future (5-10 years) is impossible without Ukraine.

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There are many more factors that confirm that the existence of an independent Ukraine today is perhaps the most important factor in Europe's security. Of course, there are also many internal European factors to preserve Europe's internal security. But now I'm talking about Ukraine.

We have to talk about Ukraine precisely about:

Of course, without going into detail, in such a situation, Ukraine must maintain its subjectivity in relations with global players. This is supposed to require:

Finally, I want to mention a wonderful Canadian writer – Carl Schroeder. He, thank goodness, is alive and well and is currently studying the future. He once wrote: « Forecasting exists not only to predict the future, but also to reduce surprises. »