The Moscow exchange index for the first time since the beginning of the month exceeded 3,000 points
The expected preservation of the key rate of the Central Bank at a level of 21% with a certain softening of the regulator rhetoric pleased investors: the Moscow Exchange Index (MoEx: MoEx) For the first time since the beginning of April, he exceeded the level of 3,000 points. However, the reduction in the Central Bank rate, market participants still do not expect earlier than the middle of the year. At the same time, geopolitical factors, as well as long May weekends, on the eve of which investors can fix the profit of previous days will have a restraining effect on the stock market.
The Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX) on April 25 for the first time since the beginning of the month exceeded the level of 3,000 points. During the auction, he reached 3009.48 points, and at the closure of the main session, he dwelled at the mark of 3006.58 points, 2.1% exceeding Thursday’s closure. According to the results of the week, the index added 4.7% and actually compensated for half the decline that occurred in the second half of March. Among the growth leaders were the highly liquid shares of Gazprom, Sberbank, Lukoil, T-technologies, which increased in price by 2-3.4%. The volume of trading also increased, exceeding 100 billion rubles. According to the shares included in the IMOEX index, while in the previous two weeks it remained significantly below this value.
The key event for investors was the decision of the Bank of Russia to maintain a key rate at 21%.
Polls of information agencies on the eve of a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank actually testified to the unanimous expectation of such a decision. At the same time, the Analyst Broker’s Caller, Ivan Efanov, notes that this time the regulator did not turn on the signal about the possibility of further increase in the rate, which can be interpreted by the market as some mitigation of rhetoric, although it is emphasized the need to maintain strict conditions for the fight against inflation. ”
At the same time, the OFZ market quite restrained reacted to the decision of the Central Bank, profitability decreased by an average of 2–4 b. The village of RGBITR HEARD ORGANIZATION OF THE RGBITR added 0.31%, reaching 638.6 points, and RUCBTRNS corporate bond index showed a more modest growth of 0.1%, rising to the mark of 163.25 points. As the chief economist of Zenit bank Marina Nikishova explains, « the decision of the Central Bank was already laid in quotes, and the rhetoric of the regulator remained as a whole conservative. »
Market participants still do not expect a soon decrease in the key rate.
Marina Nikishova draws attention to the fact that in the release of the Central Bank a phrase about “a long period of a hard monetary policy”, that is, the regulator does not yet plan to reduce the rate at a meeting in June. This was also expressed in a new forecast for a key rate for this year – 19.5–21.5%. At the same time, the risks are still shifted towards the incurumration, notes Mrs. Nikishova. Geopolitics remains a significant factor for the Russian market: Igor Dodonov, an analyst with FG Finams, expects that the news “related to the prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine and the possible weakening of anti -Russian sanctions” will contribute to the growth of indices.
On the coming days, market participants expect to preserve the index in the range of 2900–3060 points. As Ivan Efanov notes, “the upcoming long weekend should be taken into account, before which investors can prefer to fix the profit.”
