The Ministry of Finance reduced the placement of OFZ and returned to the profitability premiums
The volume of involvement at the last auctions of the OFZ did not reach 90 billion rubles, showing the worst result since the beginning of February. In anticipation of the Bank of Russia meetings at a key rate, investors are careful, and therefore they expected the profitability award from the Ministry of Finance. At the same time, market participants note the growing interest in Russian state -bit by foreign investors who buy papers in the calculation of warming relations between Russia and the USA.
After a series of large -scale placements, the Ministry of Finance forced to reduce activity in the debt market. According to the results of the two OFZs on March 19, the volume of placement amounted to about 89 billion rubles, which is three times lower than the result of a week ago and the minimum indicator from February 5. At the same time, the demand from investors amounted to less than 162 billion rubles, more than half the results of the previous week.
The placement of such a small volume forced the Ministry of Finance to return to the practice of providing a premium in profitability to the secondary market. According to the chief analyst of the debt markets of the Region BC Alexander Ermak, when placing an 11-year output (weighted average-14.89% per annum), the award was 4 b. n., when placing a 16-year output (14.38% per annum), the prize was 6 b. n. In the previous weeks, the papers were placed with a discount of 9-15 b. n. “Over the past month, the Ministry of Finance raised more than 1 trillion rubles, thereby satisfying the main amount of demand in the market. In addition, profitability below 15% per annum is no longer so attractive, ”says Mr. Ermak.
At the same time, market participants note the preserved interest in the Gosbums by foreign investors, who almost did not participate in the auctions of the Ministry of Finance in the previous three years. This is evidenced by the data of the Bank of Russia and the assessments of market participants. In particular, in February, non -residents could acquire stateboards at auctions by almost 43 billion rubles. (6.4% of the placement volume).
According to Kommersant’s source in the stock market, investors from China, from the Middle East, are cautious into Russian government bonds, there are also American funds that are not buying directly, but through companies from the CIS countries. “From the beginning of March, they bought OFZ in the primary and secondary markets for about $ 200 million,” Kommersant's interlocutor notes. It does not exclude that the volume can grow to $ 400 million per month. According to the similar scheme in 2022–2023, “Russian investors bought securities of Russian and quasi -Russian issuers from foreign holders, which, in fact, turned out to be blocked in foreign deposits, another source of Kommersant, which also records the purchases of foreign investors.
The growing interest of non -residents is facilitated by the hope of discharge in relations between the Russian Federation and the United States, as well as the expectations of reducing the rates of the local market amid a slowdown in inflationary processes and lending (see its trends. The text on the same page). According to the Renaissance Capital trader, Mikhail Zak, the main demand turned into long OFZ, where « an interesting yield level of 16.5–17.5% per annum is preserved. » These rates are much higher than those that are available in the American and European markets. “The main advantage of auctions of the Ministry of Finance is that this is the most convenient way to purchase papers is a“ volume of one price ”. In the secondary market, such purchases would cause a movement of several percent of profitability, ”explains Mr. Zach.
Under the current conditions, analysts and portfolio managers do not exclude further decrease in OFZ rates. In the coming days, the situation will be determined by the results of the meeting of the Bank of Russia, from which most analysts do not expect a change in the rate, but do not exclude the softening of rhetoric, since against the background of strengthening the ruble to think about softening the monetary policy. “The market has already laid in quotes a possible reduction in the key rate by 1-2 p., But since investors live in expectations, it will be enough to continue the promise of the Central Bank to continue the work to further reduce the key rate,” said Sergey Chernyshenko, head of the management operations of the TFG Criminal Code. As a result, it does not exclude a decrease in the rates of long OFZ to the level of 14% per annum.
