The Ministry of Finance placed OFZ for 148 billion rubles
The volume of placement at OFZ auctions amounted to almost 148 billion rubles, which is the best result in two months. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance gave a prominent prize to the profitability of the secondary market, but also quite rigidly detonated half of the applications. Investors are showing a high interest in government bonds in anticipation of a quick softening of the Central Bank’s monetary policy. Moreover, during the May holidays they accumulated a noticeable volume of liquidity.
Against the background of stabilizing the situation in the debt market, investors sharply increased the demand for government bonds. At the auctions of OFZ with a fixed coupon on May 21, the Ministry of Finance sold stateboards for 148 billion rubles, a record volume since mid -March. The total demand exceeded 287 billion rubles. Given the auction of week ago, the volume of placement in May amounted to 240 billion rubles, only a little less than was placed for the entire April (250 billion rubles).
At the same time, the Ministry of Finance retained a noticeable premium for return to the secondary market for the auction participants. According to the chief analyst of the debt markets of the Region BC, Alexander Ermak, when the seven -year output (the weighted average revenue is 16.05% per annum), the award was 8 b. p., on an 11-year issue (16.36% per annum)-4 b. n. At previous auctions, the award was 6–8 b. Analysts note a high concentration of large transactions. “At the first auction for 12 largest transactions with a volume of 1-10 billion rubles. I had almost 95% of the placement, at the second auction, the share of 24 largest transactions was 79.5%, ”estimates Mr. Ermak.
High demand at auctions is a reflection of the expectations of market participants regarding the prospects for mitigating the Bank of Russia monetary policy. Igor Kozak, Managing Director of Investment Director of TKB Investment Partnership, believes that the peak of inflation of 2025 was at the end of April and has already been completed. “At the moment, inflation slows down, including due to the significant strengthening of the ruble (by 22% from the beginning of the year), a slowdown in the growth of aggregate demand due to a significant reduction in lending,” he notes.
The surge in activity occurred against the background of a smooth reduction in profitability in the debt market. According to Alexander Ermak, during the week of May 14–20, the profitability of the In average of the OFZ-PD market fell by 12 b. p. up to 15.5–18% per annum. As a result, over the past week, the Moscow Exchange Index RGBITR (reflects the cost of a portfolio of government bonds) increased by 0.6%. “The RGBI index has been consolidated in a wide range for about a month against the backdrop of tightening the negotiation process between the administrations of Russia and Ukraine. The growth of inflationary expectations of the population – up to 13.4% in May, against 13.1% in April, also made a negative factor, ”says Dmitry Gretsevich, manager for the analysis of the banking and financial markets of PSB.
The pause in the placement in early May affected the results of auctions positively on the results of the auctions. According to the head of the Office of Stock Operations of the Criminal Code of the Criminal Code of the TFG, Sergey Chernyshenko, during the May holidays, when there was a limited number of placements of state and corporate securities on the market, a significant amount of liquidity has accumulated. This leads to an increase in demand not only for OFZ issues, but also for corporate papers. The day before, a book was signed for RusHydro Bonds with a volume of 15 billion rubles, and the company was able to reduce the coupon rate from 17.75% to 17.35% per annum. “The spread to the profitability of OFZ was less than 200 b. n., which has not been on the market for a long time, ”notes Mr. Chernyshenko.
At the same time, market participants note the instability of such demand, which largely depends on the further rhetoric of the Bank of Russia. Igor Kozak will have important importance, it will have a meeting at the end of July. “It can be assumed that the outcome will be positive for the market, since even if the rate is not reduced, they will shield accents and soften the wording of the decision,” he said.
