The Merz Cabinet comes to power in Germany under pressure to stay and succeed
Two and a half months after the early elections for the Bundestag, today the two parties of the new ruling majority will finally ratify the coalition agreement, and tomorrow the new chancellor will be elected Friedrich Merz. Many happened during these months, but Germany was somehow away from all the processes, and the vacuum in power in Berlin was visible all over the world.
Now, two decades after the emergence of Merz’s dream of being Chancellor, she has become a reality. Hardly, however, he imagined the beginning of his management.
Why Friedrich Merz is so unpopular in Germany
« Alternative to Germany » is the second political force, according to some sociological studies conducted after the election, and is becoming a favorite party. According to another study by the Forsa Agency, almost half of the Germans are disappointed with the coalition agreement signed by the Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats (GSDP), and a majority considers Friedrich Mertz an unreliable chancellor.
Will they stay
How long will the political life of the Merz cabinet be?
Analysts see in the main confidence in the future chancellor violation of the CDU’s pre -election requests and a quickly compromised compromise with the GSDP for the debt brake and making loans beyond the borders that have been acceptable for many years.
After the election at the end of February, the coalition agreement between the Union and the GSDP was quickly signed, but even then the feeling remained that not everything between future ruling was completely smoothed and would act on the move in turbulent times over Europe. This inevitably raises the question again will the new government be stable?
« There are a whole series of unresolved questions in the coalition agreement that still need to be settled and a whole series of potential conflicts that can still arise. This is one, but in addition we have to gather two or three parties that have moved from one another in recent years and now they have to find a common language » The University of Dusseldorf.
« The third thing is the pressure – inside, and here I am also referring to sociological studies according to which » alternative to Germany « (AFD) is at a very high level at the moment, as well as the pressure from the outside, ie the need for Germany to have a stable government in times of high -ending. Together, stay together and achieve results, not just arguing, « added the respected German policy analyst.
Economy
Will we witness a new miracle in Germany and a thriving economy?
A few days ago, resignation Minister Robert Habek presented the revised economic forecasts for the country and once again they are not pink. She will probably not be able to achieve even minimal economic growth this year, which shows the scale of one of the most important challenges that Friedrich Mertz and his team are facing.
And the question will still succeed the new government, given the difficult situation, to achieve a miracle is monitored under a magnifying glass and by many companies in Bulgaria, which in another way they work with the German market.
The coalition agreement has drawn measures to deal with the economic crisis, such as a reduction in corporate tax in the coming years, and will also be worked on to reduce bureaucracy. The new Minister of Economy will be a lady who has gathered experience in the energy sector, whose main task will be to achieve the announced economic twist, and for this purpose will mainly aims to restructure energy policy.
The new German Minister of Finance defends higher defense costs
« CDU/CSU and GSDP want to support the economy, to provide the work environment and to maintain jobs. It is the priority to see if this will be necessary, because, of course, it is impossible to ignore the development of international trade in the financial markets in the coming months. But at least there is a strong will characterize the work of the government and the work of the government Maybe years, and to ensure that it will become stronger again, « says Professor Marshall.
Migration
Another important topic that was the leading during the election campaign was migration.
The new Interior Minister Alexander Dobrint is one of the CSU Bavarians quota, who, with his leader Marcus Zoder, are adamant for decisive measures to reduce refugee pressure. It is expected to work in collaboration with other European countries and Germany even more promotes initiatives to deal with illegal EU-level migration. Dobrint has made request that border checks will be tightened from Wednesday. The criticism of neighboring Poland is not late, so the question remains how applicable will be more stringent control. Warsaw and Paris are the capitals that Chancellor Merz will visit on the second day of his reign.
One thing is for sure, the Mertz government must show the results of the main problems facing the country and quickly. The first cabinet test will come next year, when there will be regional elections in several provinces. And they cannot be underestimated, because the composition in the Bundesra (the upper house of the German Parliament) depends on them and, accordingly, the way the federal legislation will be adopted. Several elections will be in eastern provinces and it will be interesting whether the CDU/CSU and the GSDP will be able to return voters there, or AFD will achieve new record results.
The extremist AFD
Will it remain in an isolation « Alternative to Germany »?
At the end of last week, the party was determined by a counterintelligence as an extremist organization that threatens democracy. However, AFD is the second largest group in the Bundestag and is the leading force of the opposition.
In the last election, the right populists have won the vote not only in the eastern provinces, but also in some cities in the west, such as Gelsenkirchen, which is happening for the first time. If it does not achieve the changes that this government has made for, will AFD win the next election? On the one hand, if confidence in the center parties decreases, AFD is likely to win new sympathizers. On the other hand, the party has, to some extent, exhausted its electoral potential and is unlikely to reach a full majority in the next Bundestag.
AFD required a place in the Bundestag Commission, which works with the secret services. The party is defined as the « long hand of the Kremlin in Germany », and especially after its classification as an extremist organization, this scenario seems impossible. The problem may be the recruitment or even the retention of party members.
Bundestag’s second largest party has been declared an extremist group
If we look at Brussels AFD is the main force in the « sovereign » group, which also includes three MEPs from the Bulgarian Party « Revival ». AFD analysts have been identified as a « special case » of the European far right right.
« The party was isolated once again before the last elections, also quite deliberately by other right -wing populist parties. And therefore there is a special position due to its radical character. But there are parties in other countries that are very close to AFD in its positions, including the Austrian Freedom Party. This means that together with other parties in the European Parliament and it
The center of power is more radical than, for example, the populist zone, which is now occupied by the « national sum » of Marin Le Pen or « Italian Brothers ». Overall, we see the expansion of the spectrum in the right populist area. The parties we find there are of varying degrees of radicalism and extremism and are currently a little reorganized, « says Professor Marshall.
Foreign policy and security
Will Germany return as a leader to Europe at the Merz cabinet?
Here, the main difference, compared to the old government, will come from the new foreign minister. After Annalena Berbok of the Greens, for the first time in almost 60 years, a CDU politician will sit in this chair – Johan Vadeful. The fact that Vadeful and Mertz are from a party implies closely cooperation between them. And it is no secret that Merz wants influence on foreign policy, so in the coming years we will see a stronger role as the Chancellor.
Strengthening security in Germany and Europe is also one of the main topics on the agenda.
A National Security Council will be set up in the chancellor. The line against the war in Ukraine will remain – a highly stated support for Kiev, which does not mean that sparks between coalition partners are not possible. Mertz has repeatedly stated that he is ready to provide Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles, but the Social Democrats are skeptical.
The new government requests a strong commitment to Europe, Germany to return again as the leader of the Old Continent, as well as to restart the Franco-German motor with Paris.
« Berlin will surely become more active in the diplomatic area, so it will support all the initiatives that are currently supported by Paris and London, and will want to be part of them, so it will play a greater role in their formation. Whether it would lead to a commitment to be a whole of the Ukraine? They do not make a specific commitment.
Chancellor and reality ambitions
Mertz repeatedly made requests that he wanted to become the Chancellor, who had solved Germany’s urgent problems and would work to strengthen Europe’s positions. But he did not achieve a strong election result, providing him with a majority to facilitate the realization of his plans. The question is how much he will be able to realize the changes he wants with his coalition partner – GSDP. And it should be remembered that the role of the GSDP is key in this cabinet, despite their disappointing election result.
« The fact is that the GSDP will also take a very strong position in the government, as it provides not only the Minister of Finance, but also the Minister of Defense, and the constellation here is no longer the same as the one we had at the last government, » says Prof. Marshall.
It is not forgotten that the so -called « great coalition » is no longer a big one, and its majority in the Bundestag is not comfortable at all. What will be the new working atmosphere we will find out tomorrow when we will see how parties will choose the new chancellor.
His government is charged with the expectation of bringing a change in Germany and stability in Europe. The suggestion days whether this will happen are over.
