The market of domestic NGFW solutions by 2030 can reach 146 billion rubles

The market of domestic NGFW solutions by 2030 will reach 146.3 billion rubles. With an average annual growth of more than 18%. However, at the moment, only less than a quarter of companies have completely abandoned foreign inter -grid screens (NGFW) and many combine the use of familiar products and new Russian solutions. Experts predict that the development of domestic NGFW products to the world level will take two to three years.

“Kommersant” got acquainted with the results of the study of the Center for Strategic Development (CSR) about the market of inter -grid screens in Russia until 2030. In 2024, according to the center’s experts, the market volume amounted to 52.2 billion rubles. With a growth year, by a year of 30.1%. By 2030, the CSR expects that the market volume in Russia will reach 146.3 billion rubles. with an average annual increase of 18.3%. On the NGFW market there are already more than 30 participants with products of varying degrees of readiness, and key leaders have also been determined and consolidation of offers, the end of which is expected by 2026, according to the CSR.

NGFW is a network solution that allows you to analyze traffic, prevent invasion of infrastructure and provide deep filtration of data and protection against cyberism.

As part of the study, analysts relied on data obtained from open sources, their own results of questionnaire and survey of experts -keystorms of the industry. As factors of market growth, researchers call state support measures, tightening legislation in the field of cybersecurity, cyber attacks on the IT infrastructure of Russian companies. With restraining factors, experts denote the insufficient maturity of domestic NGFW solutions, as well as high resource intensity of implementing solutions in already detailed network security infrastructures and a high key rate of the Central Bank. An additional restraint of the Positive Technologies Managing Director Denis Korev calls the personnel deficiency.

From the study of the CSR it also follows that today 76.8% of companies continue to use foreign solutions, but their share in new sales has decreased from 72% in 2021 to 31.6% in 2024. Large customers maintain a request to use foreign solutions, such as the Israeli Checkpoint, and others working according to gray import schemes. So, for example, experts evaluate the share of import substitution at objects of critical information infrastructure within 30–40%, although by January 1, 2025 they all had to complete the transition to Russian analogues.

Experts of the CSR note that in the market there is a practice of using two inter -grid screens at once: foreign and Russian production. Positive Technologies noted that since the migration process is “large and long”, simultaneous operation of two NGFWs at once is a temporary measure that will end with a complete substitution. “As for the possible return of foreign companies to the Russian market, some customers are simply not ready to trust the companies that once disconnected them from deliveries and support,” adds the deputy general director of the CSR Ekaterina Kvasha.

“The NGFW segment is the most contradictory from the point of view of the interaction of the state, the market and vendors,” said Pavel Korostelev, head of the promotion department of products of the Code of Security. Due to the wide variety of the requirements and specifics of the IT infrastructures of customers at the start of import substitution programs, the vendors, according to him, opened up great opportunities, but now the explosive growth stage ends and the period of competition and consolidation begins. Since the basis of the high performance of the vendors-liders of the world’s NGFW world market is built on the use of specialized chips for traffic processing, inaccessible to Russia due to sanctions, local players had to learn to develop inter-grid screens using an accessible element base, Dmitry Gusev’s deputy general director Dmitry Gusev explains.

Currently, Russian inter-grid screens are beginning to approach the functionality and performance of the best foreign analogues, but, according to the USSERGATE NGFW development manager, Kirill Darkov, it will take two or three years to realize the standards sufficient for the segment of large business and government agencies. “By this time, the average service life of foreign NGFW will end – five years,” he adds.

Philip Krupanin