The market almost stopped the fall in the issuance
The car loan market, which recently showed a decrease in an average of 30% monthly, in February was able to stay at the level of January, the decrease was less than 2%. Banks indicate that borrowers switch to cheaper cars, but at the same time more often take loans to purchase not used, but new cars, since special programs of manufacturers operate in this segment. The average amount of car loan is reduced for seven months in a row.
According to the Frank RG analytical agency, in February banks issued car loans for 84 billion rubles, it turned out to be 1.85% less than in January, and 51% less than in February 2024. In quantitative terms, the decrease in February was even less noticeable (minus 0.3% of January 2025). At the same time, the average check of car loan in February 2025 showed a decrease in the seventh month in a row (minus 1.5% per month), up to 1.2 million rubles.
At the same time, the current dynamics indicates if not about the beginning of the restoration of the issuance of car loans, then at least about stagnation. Issues in the car loan segment began to steadily fall from September 2024, an average of a month to fall by a month for this period was 30% (the exception was December, when seasonal growth was observed, but in 2024 it was 0%), in January the fall continued with the previous dynamics.
Thus, February, although he did not show growth, practically stopped the fall in the segment, but bankers are in no hurry to rejoice.
“We do not believe that the car loan market began to recover: usually February demonstrates higher volumes, but the values of February remained at the level of last month,” the VTB notes. “There were no significant changes in the bank’s sales in February,” said Maxim Makukha, director of the Retail Bank retail business department. “The situation in the first half of the year will depend on the decision of the Central Bank regarding the key rate.”
At the same time, despite the decrease in the average check, it is not yet worth talking about the transfer of demand for a b/u credit. As Kommersant previously reported, in January, credit sales of new cars exceeded a similar indicator for used cars with a significant margin (See “Kommersant” from February 14). “Against the background of the growth of interest rates and reducing the level of approval of loans, sales have decreased precisely in the segment of used cars, which led to an increase in the share of loans to new cars,” says Maxim Makukha. “The main sales of new cars are today are carried out thanks to subsidized programs by automakers, where bets are much lower.” According to the data, it is clear that the greatest decrease in the issuance of car loans in monetary terms took place in the segment of used cars, confirms the analyst at the Office of the macroeconomic analysis of the Sovcombank Andrei Krylov. “Reducing the average check is probably the result of two factors. Firstly, in connection with the high cost of loans, the population can make a greater initial contribution from its own funds, ”he explains.“ Secondly, the increase in utilsbor in October 2024 primarily affected expensive cars with more powerful engines. That is, demand could switch to more budget options. ”
According to Oleg Ablev, the head of the Rick-Trend analytical department, a decrease in the average check of car loans suggests that a surge in demand for the demand for car loans, which was in January, after the payment of annual bonuses, passed.
In 2025, car loan will retain positive dynamics, but the pace of portfolio growth will slow down relative to 2024, said Yuri Belikov, managing director of the expert RA rating agency. “Despite the significant amount of supply in the market, high interest rates continue to exert pressure on the car loan segment,” says Yegor Lopatin, director of the group of ratings of the NKR agency NKR.
However, Ekaterina Konova, Director of the Department for the Development of Auto Credit and Insurance of the Balance Platform Finnate Company, draws attention to the fact that since the beginning of the current year there is an increase in the share of credit sales in the credit segment to the level of 41–42%, which exceeds last fall, which was 35–38%. “The growth is also due to the adaptation of banks and other market participants to the regulator measures aimed at holding back the growth of the car loan sector, as well as an increase in warehouses in dealers and brands,” she explains. “The last decision of the Central Bank at a key rate suggests that the percentage growth peak has already been completed and in the coming months you can expect a gradual reduction by 2-3% by the end of the second of the second quarter of 2025. «
