The Lords of Chaos
Trump’s staged trade war is not original. Protectionism is an instrument of economic nationalism that adjusts to the strategy of confrontational affirmation of its administration. The most protectionist economy in history was precisely the American in the years preceding World War II.
In this century, China has been accused of continuing a predatory policy through the artificial devaluation of its currency. Bush, Obama and Trump in their first term had already taken tariff measures against China to try to contain the commercial deficit. The measures now announced are, however, much more drastic and widespread. They will have a strong impact on world trade and will be able to lead to a recession.
In the US, there will be an increase in tax revenue but also an inflation climb. The replacement of imports with domestic production will be a long and contradictory process because, in an economy in full employment and expelling immigrants, the little efficient American industry will not find available human resources. In addition, it will suffer from the inevitable retaliatory measures.
What influences the American voter is the economy, so the announced failure will have consequences. It is known that foreign policy does not fall in love with the average American who still feels humiliated, because all Trump’s bravado have resulted in fiasco. In Gaza, the hostages continue in Hamas’s hand. The groneses do not want to be Americans. In Ukraine there is no peace or a ceasefire. Putin is dedicated to ridicule the American cronies who behave like their agents, after they have provided them vassalage with the betrayal in Kursk. European despises are organizing and will no longer be customers of the American war industry. Pacific allied faithful-Japanese and South Koreans-have been harassed with tariffs, approach China and not certain that they are available to get involved if Taiwan tension results in conflict. Forced repatriation of immigrants created a feeling of hostility throughout Latin America. No one trusts ‘Uncle Sam’, no one understands the cacophony of the American administration, or its protagonists out of an episode of the Looney Tunes.
Trump has legitimacy to try to implement what he promised. Measures against immigrants, public services, academy, social communication and cultural institutions were announced. Just as chaos in foreign policy was part of his promises.
If all goes wrong, as it seems inevitable, the electorate will no longer be an accomplice of lies and the Republicans will lose the Senate and Congress in two years. The problem is that there are signs that democratic normality is on the brink of disruption. There is an attack of political power to the judicial power, Trump openly speaks in a third term constitutionally prohibited to him and limitations on freedom of expression are being imposed, with the revocation of visas and green cards to those who criticize US foreign policy.
In addition to conjuncture chaos, when the criminalization of opinion and the institutionalization of lies is assisted, one cannot fail to anticipate the possibility that the US is no longer a liberal democracy and abandoning the principles of the rule of law. We know that this is the desire for Trump and Vance, because they do not hide the game. It remains to be noticed whether the institutions of the great American democracy are able to resist the robbery of the chaos agents it has elected.
