The illegal circulation of confectionery in Russia reached 1.49 billion packages

Inside Russia, a total of 1.49 billion packages of illegal confectionery and chocolate products is being made and imported from abroad, experts of the Higher School of Economics found out. As a result, the country’s budget only in 2025 is expected to receive more than 12 billion rubles. Manufacturers, faced with a significant rise in the price of raw materials in world markets, are trying to reduce costs due to the withdrawal of undeclared goods to the market, despite significant penalties for tax violations.

Kommersant at the disposal of the Center for Economic Examination of the Higher School of Economics (CEE HSE), which states that the illegal circulation of confectionery and chocolate products in Russia in kind reached 1.49 billion packages. For several years, as the analysis showed, an imbalance between domestic production, the import of confectionery and chocolate products and the volume of consumption of Russian households has been observed, Kommersant’s deputy director of the CEE of the Higher School of Arts, Artem concerts. That is, he clarifies, consumption of 10.4% more volume and import produced in the country – this indicator was recorded, for example, according to the results of 2023. “We came to the conclusion that these products are undeclared, since it is not reflected in tax shows,” adds Mr. Concerts.

For this reason, according to the results of 2025, the federal budget will not receive 12.07 billion rubles, showed the calculations of the CEE HSE.

Of the total amount, the most noticeable arrears may turn out to be income tax – 7.39 billion rubles. Over the same period, VAT losses may amount to 3.55 billion rubles, for unpaid customs duties at the current currency course – 956 million rubles. Another 174 million rubles.-these are falling budget revenues from an unpaid income tax in the wholesale and retail link.

The potential volume of budget losses calculated by analysts in 2025 from illegal circulation of pastry products 18% more than a year by the year. This is explained by an increase from January 1, 2025 of the income tax rate from 20% to 25% and the expected increase in the total price level by 5% year by the year, Artem concerts explain. The ZEE HSE believes that the withdrawal from the shadow of production and import of undeclared products “will allow legal manufacturers to increase net profit by 22.18 billion rubles. In the production link and 523 million rubles-in the wholesale and retail link. « 

Large industry manufacturers, including Mars (Mars, Snickers, Milky Way, Twix Brands), Mondelez (Alpen Gold, Bear Barney), Perfetti Van Melle (Fruittella, Chupa Chups, Mentos) and Red October (Alenka, Kara-Kum and others), did not answer the questions “Kommersant”. Also entered ascond – associations uniting large companies of the confectionery industry.

The Kommersant’s source in the industry insists that the undeclared products are “not synonymous with low -quality”, it is often made from good raw materials, but is not taken into account when paying taxes.

Similar, as a rule, is practiced by small and medium -sized companies, he explains. Thus, according to Kommersant’s interlocutor, manufacturers are trying to reduce costs, including due to increasing taxes and serious rise in the cost of world markets throughout the last year of raw materials, especially cocoa beans.

At least 60%, 25%in the cost of Gorky chocolate for cocoa beans, says Dmitry Leonov, deputy chairman of the Rusprodsoyuz board (unites large suppliers of food). The increase in prices for cocoa led to the rise in price of finished products in Russia. According to Mr. Leonov, wholesale prices for chocolate in February 2025 amounted to an average of 765.5 rubles. for 1 kg, while a year earlier – 524.3 rubles, retail – 1.32 thousand rubles. and 1.04 thousand rubles. per 1 kg, respectively. However, as of April 9, 2025, as follows from the quotes on Investing.com, in the United States the cost of futures on cocoa beans decreased by about 1.14 times, to $ 8.4 thousand per ton.

The situation that has developed in the confectionery industry is “this is not only a matter of underground taxes, but also a direct threat to the quality of products that children mainly consume,” the head of the Expert Council for the deterioration (entrance) of the economy under the State Duma Committee Artem Kiryanov told Kommersant. The scale of violations can be estimated on the basis of analysis of customs and tax statistics data, said the general director of the consulting company O2Consulting, Philip Danko. In addition, in his opinion, you can study market prices to identify an imbalance, since illegal products will be significantly cheaper.

Punishments for companies when identifying undeclared products are variable. First of all, the amount of unpaid taxes is charged, then a fine of 20–40% of the unpaid taxes, as well as interest for each day of delay, explains the CEO of the MITRA, Yuri Mirzoev, is possible. According to him, for undeclared imports, a fine threatens to a double value of the goods, which confiscates, in the event of a large -scale smuggling – imprisonment of up to 12 years. Criminal punishment, the lawyer summarizes, and a large amount of taxes and non -payment of taxes.

Khalil Aminov, Vladimir Komarov