The growth of industrial production slows down
According to Rosstat, for the first quarter of 2025, the production of industrial goods in annual terms increased by 1.1%. At the same time, it decreased by 2.7%in prey, and in processing it increased by 4.7%. Faster than other sectors, the production of other vehicles and equipment, finished metal products, medicines and medical materials, computers, electronics and optics is growing. In the Ministry of Industry and Trade, commenting on statistics, they state the “preservation of high indicators of increasing production volumes in high -tech sectors and directions ensuring national security”.
Given the seasonality and to the average monthly indicators of 2022, the graphics of Rosstat show a slowdown in the growth rate of industrial production in the first quarter to 7-8% against the local peak of 10% in the fourth quarter of 2024. At the same time, the average monthly rate of change in output, taking into account seasonality in the first quarter, was minus 1.3% (minus 0.7% per March) against plus 1.2% in the fourth and plus 0.9% in the first quarter of 2024.
“With the accuracy of strong fluctuations at the turn of the year, the volume of release in February was at the end of the III – beginning of the IV quarter of 2024. A small increase in February 2025 (plus 0.4% of January, with seasonality and calendar) was provided with a temperature factor (relative normalization of temperature, which led to an increase in heat and electricity production), as well as an increase in production in sectors with the dominant presence of the OPC. By deducting these two factors, the release in February in February would decrease by 0.4-0.5%, ”the analysts of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and short -term forecasting record.
According to the surveys of the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in April, industry has retained its moods at the zero level for the third month in a row. This fixation occurred after the January 55-month minimum of the corresponding index of industrial optimism. “On the one hand, this is good, because the cooling of Russian industry did not turn into hypothermia. On the other hand, the third month “at zero” is already anxious, ”said the author of the study Sergey Tsukhlo. The basis of the formation of moods is the dynamics of demand, which, after a decrease in January to a 27-month minimum, “could not demonstrate a clear movement either for the better or for the worse,” the expert comments. The lack of positive in sales reduced the satisfaction of enterprises in demand in April to 49% – this figure for the first time since July 2020 fell below 50% (78% a year ago, a historical maximum of 79% was reached in February 2022).
