The growth of consumer lending in early 2025 turned out to be insignificant

The growth of consumer lending at the beginning of 2025 was symbolic, the reporting of large banks testifies. At the same time, the largest player, Sberbank, according to the results of March, showed a reduction in the issuance of consumers, their portfolio and, according to Kommersant’s calculations, and the market share. In the coming months, the revival in the cash loan segment will be associated with re -offices at lower rates, the market participants predict.

According to the reporting of Sberbank for RAS, the issuance of consumer loans in March 2025 turned out to be the lowest in two years, amounting to only 72 billion rubles. At the same time, according to Frank RG, the volume of issuing cash loans as a whole in the market after a long decline in the first quarter of 2025 showed a small increase, reaching 237 billion rubles in March. (cm. « Kommersant » from April 8). According to Kommersant, the share of Sberbank in this segment decreased to 30%, although in 2023–2024 it was held in the range of 40-50%. At the same time, in the segment of mortgage loans in March 2025, Sberbank showed an increase in the share to almost 70% (the amount of issue reached 171 billion rubles), while in previous years it remained nearby 60%.

In the explanation for the reporting for March of 2025, the bank noted that the consumer loan portfolio decreased by 2.4% and 6.2% from the beginning of the year, to 3.6 trillion rubles, “amid high rates in the economy”.

According to the Monitoring of the Finnish Services, the rate on unsecured loans at the end of the past month was 37.3% per annum. At the same time, according to the Frank RG interest rate index, the minimum cash loan rate was at the mark of 24.6% per annum. Over the past month, according to the “finals”, only a little more than a dozen banks reduced rates. In particular, in March, Sberbank announced a decrease in the minimum rate on consumers by 1 p., To 25.9% per annum, VTB reduced the minimum rate by 0.5 p., To 20.1% per annum. Among the banks that reduced the rates, Frank RG also mentions the “world of privileges” and “Uralsib”. Sberbank did not respond to Kommersant’s request.

The VTB and the Bank « St. Petersburg » said that the dynamics of consumer lending was fed in the total statistics of an increase in the volume of issuance in the first quarter of 2025. Andrei Afanasyev, head of the consumer lending group of St. Petersburg Bank, noted that the growth of volumes occurred due to the “spring revival” of demand in March, since January and February are historically not active months in lending. According to the head of the consumer lending department of PSB Vyacheslav Shalamov, the demand for consumer loans in the first quarter of 2025 remained stable.

Experts note that weak positive dynamics is not evidence of a significant improvement in the situation in the segment, and the results of Sberbank confirm this.

According to the Kommersant source in the banking market, Sberbank had to reduce the activity of issuing new retail loans due to the operation of macroprudentic limits. According to the director of the group of ratings of the financial institutions of the NKR agency Yegor Lopatin, such the results of Sberbank in January -March 2025 may be determined by the « implementation of the bank’s strategy. » In particular, in his opinion, a decrease in the volume of consumer loans issued may be associated with the desire of the bank to ensure the growth of capital reserve against the background of increasing the allowances to sufficient sufficiency, as well as the introduction of an anticyclical allowance.

In December 2022, the Central Bank set a five -year schedule for a gradual increase in the allowance to the standards of capital adequacy after introduced messages. From February 1, 2025, its size was set by 0.25% of the assets suspended at risk, from July 1 it increases to 0.5%. In the future, it is assumed to achieve the target level of 1%. The allowance is used only by systemically significant banks.

Against the backdrop of the persistent hard monetary regulation, banks slightly change the risk policy and the reduction of betting on consumers occurs very carefully.

At the same time, the volume of cash loans at the beginning of 2025 remain two to three times lower than in 2024 and 2023, when the monthly volumes amounted to 400-700 billion rubles. Assessing further prospects, banks expect the restoration of the segment no earlier than the second half of 2025 – the beginning of 2026. “We expect a gradual restoration of the consumer lending market against the backdrop of mitigation of monetary policy and a gradual reduction in the value of funding for banks, but most likely this process will be smooth,” said Vyacheslav Shalamov.

At the same time, bankers indicate that the demand for loans will be largely provided with refinancing services. “With a possible decrease in the key rate, the deferred demand for loans in the second half of the year is activated, and the refinancing growth will also begin: many customers will be re -raining from high rates for more favorable conditions,” said Andrei Afanasyev.

Elena Vanyushina, Maxim Builov