The former Pd Taddei was the creator of the Jobs Act of Renzi, now by Goldman Sachs promotes the Meloni government: « There is political stability, protected investors »
The economist is the father of Renzi’s « Jobs Act ». Now, as a Managing Director of the USA Bank of Affairs, it appears to the right government: « The only one in 20 20 years to have earned in popularity after the settlement »
Filippo Taddei Since November 2023 it has been the Managing Director of the Bank of business Goldman Sachs Internationalwhere he works as an economic analyst of reference for Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) as well as on European economic policy. Its observation point on the country is extremely interesting also for its political past. Taddei was chosen in 2013 as Responsible for the economy of the secretariat of the Democratic Party by Matteo Renziassignment confirmed the following year. Becoming a main architects of the work reform of that government, the « Jobs Act ».
The analysis on prospects
Taddei has just signed an analysis on Italy’s economic prospects. He did it as an economist, nothing has to do with his past. But it is interesting to note how it has just highlighted that political stabilitythe improvement of public accounts and stable emissions in the near future despite the increase in expenditure commitments related to the greatest investments in defense, are the reasons that induce to have a « constructive approach » against the Italian public debt (and reflected towards the government of Giorgia Meloni). An analysis that starts from the consent that Taddei has found from international investors compared to the quality of the Italian public debt and to the credibility of the government in the face of creditors.
Our newfound credibility
The current BTP/Bund level level level German, for a few weeks around 100 points and twist map of our solvency, « has been the most limited for at least five years » and this situation could prove more lasting than some « market participants » include Taddei.
The economist underlines how the Italian public finance framework is « positive »: there are financial factors that testify to promotion, such as the ability to raise funds on international markets and the level of real debt rates, which, although increasing, remain of « about 100 basis points under the pre-plays ». And finally also affects a « low risk » of « political instability« .
The Meloni government and popularity (growing)
The Meloni government notes, « is the only one » of the « last 20 years to have earned in popularity in the 30 months following its settlement. This is an objective fact and this condition will remain at least until next year, given the absence of critical moments in politics (such as relevant elections). A novelty in the European panorama where in France and Spain, which even has the best growth rates than ours, there are leaders of minority governments ».
Comparison with other countries
As for the « support of the Recovery Fund, it is destined to continue until 2026, providing a tax space of about 1.5% of the GDP per year ». Taddei says he adds how «The Italian tax balance is improving to the fastest rhythm between the EMU4 countries, that is Germany, France, Italy, Spainreaching the lowest gap compared to the average of the euro area since 2016 and the government has reiterated its commitment to maintain this trend ». A novelty, this too, to be emphasized.
The maneuvering space
«Italy is making a faster tax consolidation compared to the average of European countries and if this, on the one hand, could be negative for growth, In reality it is not thanks to the European funds of the PNRR, in fact there is a part of our public expenditure, in the years 2025-2026which does not enter the accounting of the public deficit, but is guaranteed by the subsidies of the PNRR », adds Taddei. In other words, there is a maneuver space of about 1.5% GDP per year that can support the Italian economy without weighing on the debt. We are talking about a potential of almost 70 billion additional GDP in the next two years.
The expenses for the defense
Finally, although the royal rates of debt are increasing as a result of the « US duties and the increase in long -term yields » still remain « about 100 basic points under the average before the pandemic ». Even if the increase in defense expenditure will lead to « an increase in deficit and debt », the same « could be absorbed by the debt emission issued by the EU » and therefore « it is unlikely that BTP emissions grow » grow « while « the average deadline should stretch ». Taddei estimates the expenditure for the defense increasing a percentage point of GDP from here to 2027, but the deficit should still remain below 3%, about 2.8-2.9% in the next three years. All this if Europe actually decided to finance this type of expenditure firsthanda choice of further support for BTP, remarks the economist: « They mean additional emissions that cost less than ours, with lower returns and longer refund times ».
The productivity node
Taddei, however, warns that « a lasting improvement in Italian debt will require structural progress of the economy ». « Although temporary favorable factors will probably support the perspectives of Italian debt This year, Italy – warns – is the only country in Mu4 where productivity has fallen in the last two years, despite the broad tax support for investments offered by the Recovery Fund « . Not everything works, and this affects the Bass wages in real terms.
