The federal budget deficit in three months amounted to 1% of GDP
The period of advanced advances of state contracts and accelerated public procurement in March apparently ended – last month the federal budget was closed with a surplus, and the deficit accumulated over the first quarter was stabilized. According to the Ministry of Finance on April 8, the incomes of January -Marot amounted to 9.05 trillion rubles, expenses – 11.2 trillion rubles. As a result, the budget deficit developed in the amount of 2.2 trillion rubles, or 1% GDP. This is noticeably more than 1.2 trillion rubles planned for the whole year, or 0.5% of GDP, but less than the first two months – 2.7 trillion rubles, or 1.3% of GDP.
Recall that the impressive deficit of the beginning of the year was caused by the authorities used by the authorities for the third year by the practice of advanced advance advances of the upcoming budget expenses (see “Kommersant” for March 12). In January 2025, 4.4 trillion rubles were spent, 3.6 trillion rubles in February, in March, expenses decreased to 3.2 trillion rubles. As a result, the dynamics of the increase in expenses by the same period last year slowed down at the results of the quarter up to 9.1% after impressive January 64.1%.
Less certainty is observed relative to budget revenues, more precisely, their oil and gas part. Neneftegas revenues for three months showed steady growth, amounting to 6.4 trillion rubles. (plus 10.6% to the same period last year). However, oil and gas revenues decreased – by 9.8%, to 2.6 trillion rubles. As the Ministry of Finance admitted in his message, “there are risks of reducing” this part of budget revenues “due to weakening the price situation”.
Let us explain that the budget-2025 turned up based on the export price for Russian oil at $ 69.7 per barrel. But since the beginning of the year it is below this level. In January, according to the Ministry of Economy, the average Urals price was $ 67.7, in February – $ 61.7, in March – $ 59 per barrel. The situation is complicated by a noticeably strengthened ruble (its weakening could increase tax revenues from export). For a month and a half (from February 21), the dollar exchange rate to the ruble steadily maintains below 90 rubles./$ (Set by the Central Bank on Wednesday, April 9, the ratio of foreign currencies – 85.5 rubles./$). At the same time, the rate laid down in the formation of the budget-2025 is 96.5 rubles./$.
The Ministry of Finance earlier noted that while maintaining oil prices below $ 60 per barrel, the final budget deficit may be more planned by adding up to 1% of GDP to it. If the shortage of revenues from oil and gas cannot be compensated by non -Neneftegas income, the authorities, apparently, will have to resort to the use of the accumulations of the FNB. This has happened for the past three years (and this reduced the liquid part of the fund by two -thirds), but when planning the current budget, the Ministry of Finance hoped that in 2025 the FNB money would no longer be spent on closing the deficit.
