The extreme right already adds almost 17% in vote estimation, its best data from the elections | Spain

The PP, which slows the fall of the previous three months, is 32.6% in vote estimation, half a point below its result at the polls in 2023, and maintains a three -point advantage over the PSOE (29.5%), according to the last 40DB Institute Barometer. For the country and the SER chain. The extreme right reaps its best data since the last generals: Vox would get, if the elections are celebrated today, 14.1% of the ballots, almost two percentage points more than the 23-J, and the brand of the agitator ultra alise Pérez, The party is over (Salf), I know premiered in the European of 2024 with 800,000 ballots, It would debut in the generals with 2.7%. That is, together they touch 17%. The space to the left of the PSOE, which was fragmented shortly after the passage through the polls, would barely collect 8.4% of the support, agglutinating the votes to be added (5.1%) and Pode percentage. The intention to vote of the rest of the parties that allowed the current executive chaired by Pedro Sánchez (Juns, ERC, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG and CC) to be set as a whole in 6.7%, almost the same result they obtained in July 2023 (7.06%). Can consult all the poll data here.

The survey (2,000 interviews on-line) It was held between March 28 and 31. In those days, the US president, Donald Trump, finalized the terms of his Commercial War and Marine Le Pen, French ultra -right -wing leader, was sentenced to four years in jail and disqualification penalty for embezzlement of public funds, But Santiago Abascal’s proximity to both politicians does not seem to go to Vox yet. Trump detailed the tariffs last Wednesday, after the survey closed, but in a Specific study on the first measures of the new US government prepared by 40DB. For the country and the SER chain and published on March 3, Vox voters showed a rejection of the application of tariffs by the US much less than that of the general population. The difference within the Abascal electorate among those who valued very positively or very negatively the measure resulted in -11.2% compared to -52.4% of socialist voters. The SALF electorate, meanwhile, mostly supports these tariffs. At the moment, the PP It has distanced themselves from those positions of the extreme right Regarding Trump, although the negotiation of several autonomous budgets with the formation of Abascal is pending. Neither does it Prosecutor’s request In order for the Supreme Court to investigate Alvise Pérez for illegal financing, considering that the Eurodiput accepted 100,000 euros in black of an entrepreneur for his electoral campaign, has subtracted support from his party. On the contrary: the party is over improving in almost one point its vote estimation with respect to the previous survey.

During the period in which the survey was conducted, the agreement between the Ministry of Finance and the Labor was also news so that perceptors of the minimum interprofessional salary do not have to pay for IRPF This year; The president of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, announced a hardening of the requirements to create private universities; The Superior Court of Justice of Catalonia Abspeding footballer Dani Alves of a crime of sexual aggression and First reaction from the first vice president, María Jesús Montero – « What a shame that it is said that the presumption of innocence is ahead of the testimony of young and brave women who decide to denounce the powerful, » he said, « caused a Complaint joint statement by representatives of the judicial and fiscal career. In addition, Sumar Movement celebrated its assembly, calling the space of space to the left of the PSOE (We can abandon the parliamentary group a few months after the elections), and with criticism of the European Rearme Plan, which divides the partners of the coalition government.

TRANSFER OF VOTES

The PP is the game with the most faithful voter: 81% of its support in the 2023 elections would choose its ballot today. The formation yields 10.5%to Vox, the second game with the greatest voting fidelity (79.2%), despite the leaks to the PP (2.9%) and, above all, the party is over (11.3%). The loyalty of the socialist electorate is almost five lower percentage points (74.6%), although it has practically eliminated the assignments to be added and now loses in favor of the PP (5.3%) and towards indecision (7.5%).

In the space to the left of the PSOE, the coalition that brought together in July 2023 Yolanda Díaz barely retains 46% of its voters of the last generals and would yield, if the elections were celebrated today, almost 30% of their ballots to Podemos and 6.5% to the PSOE. It is the political brand that has the most undecided (9.2%).

Intention to vote by gender and age

The PSOE is imposed on the PP in intention to vote – even without the democopic correction, known as the kitchen – in the male and female electorate. The female electorate shows a greater disenchantment towards politics: the sum of undecided, white, null and abstentionist votes is almost 26%, compared to 18.3% of men.

Vox improves his data in the female electorate, although he obtains four more percentage points in the masculine. In the space to the left of the PSOE, add and we can practically tie between men and the data among women is slightly better in the brand identified with Yolanda Díaz. Both formations have registered scandals related to sexist attitudes of former leaders: Íñigo Errejón on the one hand and Juan Carlos Monedero on the other.

By ages, Vox, with 24%, remains the first game in intention to vote in the strip from 18 to 24 years, with seven points of advantage over the second, the PSOE (16.7%) and 12 points and a half over the third, the PP (11.5%), although the winning percentage among the youngest is the political disaffection: the sum of undecided, abstentionists and who would vote in white 35.1%. The preference for the Abascal Party decreases as the age progresses: among those over 65, its intention to vote is 14 percentage points lower than among those under 25. The extreme right -wing formation is imposed on the sum of the Diaz and Podemos platform in all age stripes. The PP obtains its best data (24.8%) between those over 65 and the PSOE, in the fork of 55 to 64 (25.9%).