The expert of the Institute for Studying War presented evaluations: Putin has resources for 12 to 16 months of war – the world

According to Baros, for about a year, and budget reserves for funding war and the ability of the authority to find « volunteers » for the front can be exhausted.

Russian regions now recruit 1-1.5 thousand people every day, Moms in war of generous bonuses, whose average size reaches 1.4 million rubles.

This allows for the losses on the first line, which NATO estimates at 30-45 thousand people per month and more than 900,000 people since the beginning of the war.

However, the authorities will not be able to maintain this tempo of employment indefinitely, Baros was convinced. « They will have to continue to raise bonuses to ‘hunt a smaller demographic base’ men who have not yet been sent to the front, and in the end this policy will come across budget problems.

Now only the payment of « bonus » to sign the contract costs the vault of two billion rubles a day, or 730 billion rubles a year.

It is almost twice as much as annual budgets of rich and large regions, such as Sverdlovsk Oblast or Krasnia Territory.

The Kremlin counts on to tramp the administration to suspend or reduce the help of Ukraine, which would reduce the losses of the Russian army and enabled Putin to continue the war longer, considered Baros.

« The conflict will be solved by military funds, » he is sure. « It all depends only if it will be Russia’s victory in this or that form or victory of Ukraine in this or that form. »

The Russian government has consumed 22.3 trillion rubles to war, and in order to close budget « holes », the National Wealth Fund (NVF) consumed two-thirds of its free funds: His liquid funds were reduced by $ 106 billion in three years and fell to the minimum in the last 17 years.

In the budget for 2025. year, Kremlin has set aside another 13,2 trillion rubles of military consumption and was forced to re-spend from NVF to compensate for oil and gas revenues due to sudden fall of oil prices. In April, Barel Ural was sold below $ 50 per barrel for the first time in almost two years. And by such prices, the NVF will suffice in about a year, estimates Olga Belen, Economist in EVERY.

With oil below $ 50, the budget will lose 1.9 trillion raw raw material, and if the Ural drops to $ 45, almost 3 trillions, calculated Raiffeisenbank analysts.