The end of the era of young debtors, mortgages will dominate the fifties

2. June 2025 at 16:19

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The mortgage market changes structurally. The main reason is the development of demography, in which the proportion of young people decreases in the overall population. The share is also decreasing with their loss mortgages For young debtors, the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) notes.

In the long run, we can expect to drop demand for new housing. It will not stop the rise in real estate prices, but it can alleviate it.

Slovakia has been dying out for five years, because more people will die than it is born. Last week the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic published Data for the first quarter of 2025, according to which Slovakia lost by four thousand people for this period.

A decline in new mortgages

NBS in a new report on financial stability writesThe fact that the aging of the population is already manifested by data debtors with mortgages. According to her, the proportion of mortgages that are repaid by debtors over the age of 45 is significantly increasing: « In the past six years, this share has increased from 20 to 28 percent, with the volume of these loans more than doubled. »

According to the NBS, this growth should continue until 2037, based on the forecasts of demographic development and while maintaining long -term trends in the loan market.

Up to a quarter of the volume of all mortgages will be repaid by debtors over 50 years of age. At that time, the share of fifties will be approximately twice as high as the share of young people under 35.

With a decline in the share of younger debtors who have the greatest prone to drawing mortgages, demand for these loans will be reduced.

« In ten years, the number of newly -provided mortgages will fall by approximately a quarter compared to the normal level in 2019 to 2021 (before the increase in interest rates), » the NBS reports. The number of new mortgages is currently held on average around 14,000 a year.

According to the NBS, the year -on -year growth rate of the mortgage portfolio, ie the total amount of mortgages provided, could be stabilized at three to six percent in the longer term, due to the rise in real estate prices.