The decrease in the young labor force in the EU and the aging of the population threatens social systems and economic growth – Cyprus Newspaper

The European Union (EU) increases the risk of labor deficit and economic recession in which demographic problems such as low birth rates, aging population and decrease in young labor force.

Eurostat’s latest forecasts show that the population of the EU will begin to decrease in the EU as of 2026 and 22 of the 27 member states will lose their working age population (20-64 years) by 2050.

Accordingly, it is estimated that the EU population will reach 447.9 million in 2050 and 419.5 million in 2100, which is expected to reach 453.3 million.

Latvia, Lithuania, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Portugal, Croatia and Poland, which are expected to be most affected by the decrease in the population due to the low external migration and birth rate in the east and south of Europe, are estimated to decrease 20 percent of the working age population in countries such as Poland.

On the other hand, all EU countries are at risk of decreasing the working population. The working age population, which constitutes 64 percent of the total population in 2022, is expected to decrease to 56.6 percent in 2060 and to 54.4 percent in 2100.

The population continues to age

The population is expected to continue in all member states, while the number of people aged 80 years and older calculated as 27.1 million in 2022 is expected to increase to 64 million by 2100 years.

While Europe continues to aging due to low birth and mortality rates, this is expected to intensify financial pressures on health, pension and long -term maintenance systems.

While the number of people in the working age decreases, the old population is likely to increase the dependence rate with the increase of the age, while the fact that this ratio, which was measured as 33 percent in 2022, will increase to 59.7 percent in 2100, brings about social and economic problems.

Estimates revealed that the working age would be less than 2 people in 2050, while Greece, Portugal and Italy will be affected by the problem of increasing aging dependence rate.

It is estimated that problems such as employment, lack of labor and economic recession will emerge with the decrease in the population working in Europe, which has been struggling with the problem of aging of the population for many years.

Bruegel, a Brussels -based thinking tank, answered the questions of the research assistant Nina Ruer, AA correspondent about demographic problems waiting for Europe and their solutions.

« The EU population will begin to shrink absolutely »

Ruer stated that the latest data is a “turning point for Europe and said,“ From 2026, the EU population will not only continue to aging, but also will begin to shrink absolutely. Fertility rates continue to be well below the substitution level in all member states, and the population of the working age is increasing in a sharp manner. he said.

Especially in Eastern Europe, they estimated that the population decrease will be experienced, Ruer said that this will have significant effects on the social and economic balances of Europe.

Rueer pointed out that the increase in the number of retirees on taxpayers and states will increase the financial pressure on the states, and that the decreasing labor force will lead to a decrease in productivity, competitiveness and innovation capacity.

Ruer said, “I can say that we are approaching a critical turn, especially for countries with labor shortages and financial difficulties. However, this is also an opportunity moment. How Europe will react in the coming years will shape the next decades.” he said.

Referring to the steps to be taken in this direction, Ruer said that they are to revise social assistance systems, to invest in technologies that increase productivity, to support family policies and gender equality, to take steps that increase the employment of young people and to manage migration strategically.

Inequalities in the EU may increase

Ruer pointed out that the decrease in the population will influence the EU economically and politically, not a regional issue, and said, “The scarcity of labor in Eastern and Southern Europe can slow down economic rapprochement and increase inequalities throughout the Union.” He said.

Ruer stated that the pressure of migration in the EU may increase as a result of the fact that more young workers went to the northern and Western European countries, and underlined that this could fuel political tensions or force integration systems.

Pointing out that the situation will bring the differentiation of policy priorities among the member states, Ruer said that it may make it difficult to compromise in the EU’s decision -making mechanisms.