The credits of the Romanians. A good news and one bad

IRCC stagnates, loans with ROBOR are expensive.

The reference index for consumer credits (IRCC) will remain at the level of 5.55% starting with July, according to the calculations made by Profit.ro. This level is similar to the one applied during the period April-June, which means that debtors with credits calculated according to IRCC will not see changes in the rates until autumn.

Robor growth affects debtors

Unlike IRCC, ROBOR indicators at 3 and 6 months continued their upward trend, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth. Media ROBOR at 3 months for the first quarter of 2025, which will be applied according to the contract in the second quarter, increased from 5.7% to 5.93%. Also, ROBOR to 6 months climbed from 5.74% to 5.99%.

Credit contracts signed before 2019 generally have rates calculated according to ROBOR, except in cases where the debtors opted for the ICC. The increase of this indicator comes in the context of political turbulence and fears about a high inflation, the banks adjusting their offers accordingly.

Impact on loan rates

For a loan of 210,000 lei contracted for 300 months, with a margin of 2.03 percentage points depending on ROBOR at 3 months and 2.5% depending on the IRCC, the hypothetical changes are as follows:

The credit rate related to IRCC decreases from 1,643 lei to 1,628 lei, a level at which it will be maintained during July-September.

The credit rate calculated according to ROBOR increases from 1,583 lei to 1,615 lei.

From 2022 to the present, debtors with ICC -based loans have paid about 3,300 lei less at installments compared to those whose credits are calculated according to ROBOR, even if the interest related to the latter have been lower in the last year.

Prospects for monetary policy

Analysts estimate that the National Bank of Romania (BNR) could reduce the key interest in summer, after the presidential elections and to announce any new tax measures to balancing the budget. The forecasts of banks indicate a decrease in the rate of monetary policy interest to 5.75-6% this year, from the current level of 6.5%, established in August 2024.

If this discount will materialize, the debtors will feel the effects only at the beginning of next year. Those with loans based on ROBOR could benefit from a decrease in rates in the last quarter of this year, depending on the bank update policy.