The conversations about Ukraine are approaching an important answer, but not from Moscow or Kyiv
The conversations to stop the battles and the war in Ukraine are at a time when multiple signals with combinations of discounts and threats are simultaneously reported among continuous Russian strikes on civilian objects … This gives the impression not so much for a mess and lack of a clear plan, and that the whole process is approaching.
There are already assumptions that it can be a fact until the summer and it seems that it will not be good for Ukraine and Europe.
The answer to this must come from Moscow or Kiev, but from Donald Trump. Because he is ambitiously engaged as the only person on the planet who can end the conflict. Ten days before his 100 days in power, they do not show the achievement of the goal to be close.
Here’s what happened only in the last hours:
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Donald Trump could soon give up the attempt to end the war in Ukraine after saying that the president was beginning to lose hell.
- At the same time, Vice President Jay D. Vance told Prime Minister Giorgie Meloni on the way to the Vatican that they have been optimistic in the US because some interesting things have happened in the last 24 hours.
- The Bloomberg Agency claims that it has a US peace proposal, now shown in Paris, according to which the seized territories remain for Vladimir Putin, will be softened by the sanctions against Russia, the process of entering NATO will be stopped and the practical conflict will be frozen.
On the one hand, the participants in the Paris meeting on April 17 with representatives of France, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Ukraine described its results as « excellent », « constructive » and « positive ». A new range of negotiations will be held next week, this time in London.
On the other hand, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned after a meeting in Paris that the United States « would not continue this job weeks and months » and « very quickly, within days, we must clarify whether this is achievable in the next few weeks. » « If it’s not, if we’re so separated that it won’t happen, I think the president is at the point he will say » Well, we’re done, « he added, considering that Donald Trump can move on to solving other problems.
Three diplomats from Europe told Reuters that the Secretary of State’s comment was reflecting a growing disappointment in the White House from Russian hanging around the stop of war.
In an interview with New Europe, the head of the Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carnegie, Alexander Gabuev explained what the peace agreement is hindering, what Kiev should be afraid of, what are the real goals of the Kremlin and what Moscow can already consider as an asset.
- According to him, something positive is not approaching, but Trump must decide whether I will continue to support Ukraine in one way or another, hoping that this will help to end the war. Putin realizes that he will not be able to defeat Ukraine in the long run, Russia only suffers losses and there will be no better chance than the one with Trump, so it is better to go for compromise.
- Or he will announce that he is leaving the game – which is not even his, but was created by his predecessor Joe Biden – as he has understood with Vladimir Putin. And the stubborn Europeans and Ukrainians do not accept the agreed – then to handle themselves. Europe cannot compensate for US withdrawal if it is complete. Ukraine will not lose the war immediately, but within a year its situation will become more and more complicated.
There are also important nuances such as whether Americans will leave a purely commercial basis – once they pay (and buy American liquefied gas, etc.), it’s just a business – the arms of Ukraine or even the sharing of intelligence. With European money, Ukrainians can last a long time if they fix the problems with the renovation and rotation of the parts (the NATO Commander in Europe, Gen. Kavoli told Congress that it is almost fixed) and a clear mechanism for demobilization. Trump’s criticism of Europe and the compliments on Putin continue.
Both options do not mean Trump isolation of Russia, on the contrary. Putin seems to be able to separate his aggression in Ukraine from other bilateral interests in the thinking of Washington. And the White House wants to progress in conversations about arms control, settlement (with Russian assistance) of regional crises, economic benefits from returning the business to the Russian market … Kiev seems to be an annoying obstacle to Trump’s circle to all this.
Rubio said Europeans should play a central role in every peaceful pact, especially since their sanctions on Russia are likely to be canceled to provide an agreement. For Europe’s questions about US security guarantees, he explained that they are a problem « that we can solve in a way that is acceptable to all », but « we have greater challenges that we need to understand. » Which does not tell us something new and more categorically about it.
But such discussions divert attention from the main question – the real negotiations to stop the war are not being conducted, and the strongest guarantees for the security of Ukraine is the army of its army and reinforcement through Western cooperation of the country’s military -industrial complex. Finnish President Alexander Stub said.
According to Gabuev, whatever they repeat or silence the Russians, the purpose of Puten is one – dismantling or serious weakening of the Ukrainian military machine, termination of Kiev’s military cooperation with the West and preventing any security guarantees from key countries. In other words, in Kiev, they perfectly understand that all this means the inability of the country to survive as a sovereign state.
Therefore, « Russia has no interest or need to conclude a truce now under conditions that would give Ukraine a chance to take a breath, to regroup or, for example, to negotiate with France and the UK about the deployment of European troops. Russia is not interested in terminating the fire, which is not accompanied by certain conditions. Moscow wants to load it immediately.
The latter – a solid diplomatic game from the Russians – may be a tactic aimed at accelerating a personal meeting Putin -Trump, which can give the impression that only they can agree. And in fact, it is a triumphant return of the Russian leader to one of the lead roles on the world stage.
As for the cessation of the fire in Ukraine without leading to a peace treaty, in Kiev they realize that sooner or later it will have to be canceled martial law, to conduct demobilization, as well as elections … The time will come to the public to speak freely for the accumulated disagreements and questions to the military and politicians, and the conflicts will explode openly.
Then comes the question with whom and what the country will recover. « Russia expects the flow of people from Ukraine to Europe will be greater than the other way around. And these hopes cannot be called unfounded, » Gabev says.
Which can weaken Ukraine from the inside to the extent Putin to say that even before the war, he warned that Ukrainians could not deal with their own country, that they did not need to fight, because this is what they led them to choose a pro -Russian leader, and they can leave it. « Or from Ukraine there will be such a wild field that it will not be able to pose a threat in itself and will serve as a lesson to anyone who wants to leave the Russian orbit. »
