The contract movement 2025: Real wages and working hours on the table

A total of 3.4 million employees, almost the entire labor market, are affected when 510 Swedish collective agreements expire and will be negotiated during the year. A contract movement has not been so extensive since 2007.

Most and largest agreements expire already on Sunday.

– You have to be prepared that anything can happen now, and we are. We have 20-30 mediators who are active and are ready, says Irene Wennemo, Director General of the Authority.

However, she thinks it is an unusually factual and respectful contract movement so far and points to the world situation as a probable cause.

– I think everything around us creates some kind of seriousness in both unions and employers. I may be wrong but it feels like you don’t want to hold on and quarrel about small things. You do not want to be designated as irresponsible at such a stage, says Irene Wennemo.

Everything from miners To restaurant people and teachers will receive new collective agreements in the spring. But right now, most people’s eyes are directed at the negotiations between the parties of the industry that set the so -called « brand ».

Only when they are ready does it usually start to move properly in other areas.

Prior to the turn of the year, industrial papers emerged with a requirement for salary increases of 4.2 percent, which employers think is too high. The independent mediators, OPO, who assist in the negotiations came on Friday with a proposal of 7.7 percent over three years – just under 2.6 percent at an annual rate.

Industrial employers’ CEO Per Hidesten thinks that the proposed level is acceptable, but worrying close to the limit for what is okay for Swedish industry’s competitiveness internationally.

He points to Finland whose industrial agreement recently became clear with annual wage increases of 2.6 percent.

– The industrial agreement says that the wage agreement and the contract agreement should promote competitiveness. Then we always look at the outside world. Now we have a Finnish agreement that has landed at 2.6 percent at an annual rate. 7.8 percent a total of over three years. We must relate to that, says Per Hidesten.

With the Riksbank’s latest assessment of inflation – an average of 2.5 percent in 2025 – it would give a real wage increase on the margin. It is not enough according to the unions, waiting for a new bid later this week.

– I understand that the Finns have landed there because they have not had such brilliant growth in recent years. They are in a completely different position than we do simply, says Marie Nilsson, chairman of IF Metall.

It is not enough for Swedish industrial workers?

– No, we are in a much better position. Then they also have another context on top of what is that the government has made fairly massive deterioration for the workers as well, says Marie Nilsson.

The last two inflation message from Statistics Sweden has shown higher figures than most people had expected. With that in mind, neither a compartment nor an employer dares to promise any real wage increase.

– You can’t. It is not possible. It is productivity growth that creates the conditions for good conditions and wage increases, and it ultimately goes hand in hand with what economy you get in society. We cannot chase inflation with wage increases because then we get a salary -driven inflation, says Per Hidesten.

Neither does Marie Nilsson dare to take something out in advance.

– It really depends on how inflation develops. We hope and our investigation has been that inflation will come down to the Riksbank’s goal and lie there in the future, but it is very difficult to say something about, she says.

Working hours are another important issue in the contract movement. In the industry, there are collectively agreed working time reductions through so -called working time accounts.

They have been around for many years. But when the question of a more general reduction in working hours has been raised from politics during the year – and a parliamentary election is around the corner – employers have become worried.

– We can’t have parallel systems. So if this is supposed to be on the legislative path, then we cannot keep the collective agreements, says Per Hidesten.

In other areas Where part-time is more common, in the trade or the restaurant and hospitality industry, the question of extra-time compensation is a big deal. The European Court of Justice has said that part-time workers who work more than agreed should have extra-time compensation, but how it should be regulated, not all Swedish parties agree.

Here, the Mediation Institute sees a risk of locking.

– It is such a point that can require mediation, but I hope they trigger as much as possible themselves, says Irene Wennemo.