The conclave begins in the Vatican – uncertainly into the last
When the Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio arrived until the 2013 Konklav gave betting companies 40 times the money to the one who bet he would be the next pope. The Vatinkan experts placed him far down on his lists of Papabile Or « papers » cardinals.
But five polls later, it was he who came forward on the balcony of Peter’s Church as Pope Francis.
It says something about how uncertain a pope is. It is about politics, geography, theological issues – but also about who knows who among the cardinals.
After Francis’s death On Monday Easter, the world’s cardinals have flowed to Rome. About 134 of them – those who are below 80 – will participate in the conclave, the congregation that chooses his successor.
And over the past week they have met in different contexts. At official meetings, at trade shows and prayers, but also at private dinners. They have presented their positions, they have probably mentioned the name of candidates they can imagine. They have created informal groups.
The meetings are needed, because the cardinals do not know each other very well. The conclave is larger than before and of those who have the right to vote, as many as 108 have been appointed by the former Pope.
This particular fact means that some assessors are tipping that the next pope will follow in Francis’s footsteps. That it becomes an ascetic pope who wants to stretch a hand to the global south, which emphasizes migrants, poor people and the climate crisis.
In short a counterbalance to worldly leaders like Donald Trump.
But that it becomes so is far from safe. Not all the cardinals Francis appointed during his 13 years as Pope shares his views. And there are many other factors for the voters to consider than whether or not a candidate is considered to be close to the dead pope.
A number of strong candidates have been identified. They can be roughly divided into progressive such as Francis, conservative critics of him, and middle candidates who could unite the phalanges.
It is about the same name as the betting companies provide the lowest odds. Currently, « Italian Pietro » leads « Parolin, who is regarded as moderate, before the progressive Philippines Luis Antonio Tagle.
But also conservative names such as Hungarian Péter Erdö and the Guinean Robert Sarah are mentioned in pre -speculation. Like other progressive such as Italian Matteo Zuppi and Frenchman Jean-Marc Aveline.
Geographical considerations Can also play a role. Is it perhaps time for a pope from Africa, the region where the Catholic Church is actually growing? Or should the skewter « come home » to Italy after 47 years by non-Italians on the Holy Chair?
One problem from the progressive camp’s point of view is that many would like to see an African Pope, but that the available candidates are strictly conservative, especially in matters of LGBTQ people and the role of women in the church.
In addition, several of the top candidates have their strong critics, who lobby intensely to stop them.
This applies to Pietro Parolin, who, in his role as the Vatican’s highest diplomat, negotiated an agreement with China in 2018. This resulted in the Chinese Communist Party in practice having veto rights when Catholic bishops are appointed in the country.
That price was considered worth paying for Chinese Catholics to be openly practicing their religion. But some believe that Parolin lay flat for Beijing.
When it comes to second -hand favorite Luis Antonio Tagle, he is criticized for not highlighting hard enough against the former President Rodrigo Duterte, when he performed his « war » against drugs with thousands murdered.
Of course, the Cardinals who have gathered in Rome do not openly comment on politics. But just like other elections in the world, the conclave is in the shadow of Donald Trump.
The US president has, for its part, already pointed out his favorite candidate: Timothy Dolan, Cardinal and Archbishop of New York.
Not so many others believe in Dolan. But he is predicted to play an important role as a « royal maker » and leader in the conervative’s conservative group.
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