The centrist and pro-European candidate Rafal Trzaskowski with a very short advance, according to the first surveys out of the ballot box-Liberation-Liberation

Liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, seems ready to win the Polish presidential election on Sunday on the razor’s thread, according to a survey at the exit of the polls.

The investigation carried out by Ipsos for the TVN, TVP and Polsat channels shows that Trzaskowski, member of the civic coalition, the centrist party in power, would win the vote with 50.3 % of the votes. His rival, a conservative historian and amateur boxer, Karol Nawrocki, supported by the nationalists of law and justice (worse), would obtain 49.7 %. This survey has an error margin of 2 percentage points.

The official results were to be published on Monday, but a late survey that mixes certain results with outing polls of the polls was to be published in the night.

On the eve of the second round, the last average poll planned an extremely close victory for the centrist and mayor of Warsaw Trzaskowski, with 50.6 % against 49.4 % for Nawrocki.

This election initiated two opposite visions of Poland. The candidacy of the centrist Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, was widely supported and hoped by the liberal government of the Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, who has been in a political deadlock for outgoing conservative president, Andrzej Duda for months. In Poland, the head of state has a mainly honorary role, but has a crucial veto power. Andrzej Duda prevented Prime Minister Donald Tusk from holding many of his electoral promises, including judicial reforms, the liberalization of the law on abortion and the introduction of civil unions.

The nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki, 42, is a great admirer of the American president Donald Trump, opposes the membership of Ukraine to NATO and denounces the aid granted to Ukrainian refugees in Poland, while this country has been at the forefront of support for Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022.

During the last days of the campaign, Rafal Trzaskowski, who came at the top of the first round on May 18 with a tiny margin of 31 % against 30 % for his opponent, had called on the voters to mobilize in mass to vote. In the legislative elections of 2023, a record participation rate, at 74.38 %, in particular young voters, had given victory to the pro-European coalition of Donald Tusk.

In the first round of this presidential election, the far -right candidates had obtained more than 21 %. Their voices had to refer naturally to Karol Nawrocki. The electoral campaign has also been marked by revelations about it. Media revealed that he had acquired an apartment from an elderly man after a transaction deemed opaque by observers and his political opponents.

The Polish media also published an investigation claiming that it was involved in the introduction of prostitutes in a hotel in Sopot, in the North, at the time when it worked there as guard, twenty years ago. Karol Nawrocki had denounced « lies ».