The boomerang risk for Trump in Asia: the « great nervousness » (if Golf diplomacy is not enough))

Donald Trump’s Day After has arrived. The consequences of what was announced tonight by the American president will soon be seen. But as the magazine writes this week Foreign Policy « The Trump administration continues to make news, but the true story could be elsewhere ». Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at the University of Harvard, there remember That « with all the chaos that currently overwhelms the foreign policy of the United States, it is easy to lose sight of some more fundamental aspects of global policy ».

The distractions have been continuous, and have occupied the front pages of the newspapers since the beginning of the year to today: the looming commercial war, the employment threats to Canada and Greenland, the « strips » to Zelensky and the « anchorings » with Putin, « the increasingly evident animosity of the Trump administration towards Europe » and the wave of layoffs in the US public sector. In short, the leader of the White House certainly did not miss the material for captivating titles to the newspapers of the world. Yet, the question that can have greater long -term implications, according to Walt, is elsewhere: Asia increasingly unbalanced where Washington is playing with the future of his partnerships.

The numbers

Just in Asia, Trump’s duties hit harderly: in China (34%), Japan (24%) and South Korea (25%), but above all in Vietnam (46%), Cambodia (49%), Laos (48%); Sri Lanka (44%). At the minimum Singapore (10%) and Philippines (17%).

The alliances that had formed over the years to prevent China from dominating the Region risk crumbling. The first signals begin to reveal themselves. « China, Japan and South Korea agreed to respond jointly to US duties, » a social affiliated social account affiliated on the Chinese state media said on Monday. Affirmation that Seoul called « a little exaggerated », while Tokyo denied in full. At the end of a meeting of the trade ministers, last Sunday, it is true that the three countries issued one joint note in which they claim to have agreed to accelerate the interviews on a free trade agreement to « promote regional and global trade ».

As Walt recalls «the duties on cars and foreign car spare parts (25%) will hardly affect South Korea and Japan, which It is certainly not an ideal way to encourage greater strategic solidarity with both countries. Beijing was quick to exploit the opening, with the Foreign Minister Wang Yi who underlined « the great potential » for trade and stability with Japanese and South Korean officials, telling them that « The neighbors are better than distant relatives »».

At the Boao Forum for Asia, a politics and business summit held every year in the province of Hainan, Chinese officials and academics then underlined the need to strengthen partnerships with the countries of the Southern world, and in particular of the nearby Southeast Asia. Huang Yiping, economist of the University of Beijing and influential consultant of the Chinese Popular Banca, reports The Guardian, he underlined The importance that Cooperino countries without the United States.

The Southeast Asia

In Southeast Asia there is « great nervousness »comments Ben Bland, director of the Asia-Pacific program of the British Study Center The Chatham House, « Above all because it is a key melting pot for the rivalry between the United States and China and hosts several countries with remarkable US commercial deficits ». Despite the different relations with the USA – from the Filipino allies to the Filinese Cambogiani up to the « pro -Russian neutrality » of Vietnam, from which I am writing to you – « there are some basic fears shared on how the new administration can shape the trajectory of the region for the worse ». Some even fear that Trump, perhaps pushed by Elon Musk, can look for a great agreement with XI « who would leave the region at the Mercé of Beijing ». Others fear the reaction to their success. Vietnam is at the top of the list of the most affected countries, with the third largest commercial deficit of goods with the United States last yearafter China and Mexico, for a total of 124 billion dollars. The United States also have significant commercial deficits with Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. In front of all of them, according to Bland, the challenge of being « more resilient in front of a China on the rise, erratic United States and a global order that is shattered ».

As for Vietnam, the Trump Organization and its partner in the country, the Kinhbac City real estate, are working on Multiple investments for billions of dollars in golf courses, hotels and real estate projects in the country of Southeast Asiaa spokesperson for the consortium told Reuters. The company plans of the US President’s family proceed despite the US duties on Vietnam, which has one of the largest commercial surplus in the world with Washington and last year exported goods for a 30% value of its GDP in the United States. TO The works for the first project, worth 1.5 billion dollars, which will arise near the capital of Vietnam Hanoi should start shortly short. Three 18 -hole golf courses and a residential complex is planned. The agreement for the construction of another golf or hotel project near Ho Chi Minh City, The economic capital in southern Vietnam should be announced by the end of this year.

« To rebalance the commercial gap and avoid rates, Vietnam has committed to increase imports from the United States, cut non -tariff duties and barriers and is also allowing Elon Musk Starlink to offer its satellite internet services in the country », explains the Reuters agency. And then focuses on the « golf diplomacy », which could also replace the famous « bamboo diplomacy », With which Vietnam has so far managed its multipolar relationships, trying to worship herself without getting too bad between Russia, the United States and the powerful neighbor, China.

The Prime Minister Vietnamese, Pham Minh Chinh, In January he said he was Ready to visit Trump in his home in Mar-A-Lago, Florida, and « play golf all day » His country will benefit from it. Will it be enough to make Trump happily and stop? (At the moment, it seems not: here the in -depth analysis by Federico Fubini on the Vietnam « betrayed »)