The battle for labor is going to be even tougher in the future

The demographics of Northern Norway differ significantly from the national average. The proportion of inhabitants over 50 years is higher in the north than nationally, while the proportion of young people under 20 is lower. Already, 72 out of 80 municipalities in Northern Norway have more elderly people over 65 years than children and young people under the age of 19. By 2031, there will be more elderly people over 65 than young people in Bodø. For Tromsø it will happen in 2035 and in 2044 for Alta.

In addition to an age -old population, there are also lower birth rates and weaker net migration in many Northern Norwegian regions. This is going to affect Employment development in the region and make it even more demanding to recruit.

At the end of 2023, there were 249 140 employees in Northern Norway, where 99,599 worked in the public sector. In the future, it is expected that the public sector will continue to grow due to a greater need for health and care services, as well as with a national ambition to strengthen both defense and emergency preparedness. With an increasing need for labor in the public sector, the number of employees who are available to business in Northern Norway may fall between 22 and 31 per cent by 2050. In regions such as East Finnmark, Midtfinnmark, Nord-Troms, Sør-Helgeland and the Narvik region, the workforce in the business sector will be halved until 2050.

At the same time, this will mean higher costs for companies, which could give further pressure on profitability, but will also be able to propel higher productivity, more use of artificial intelligence or automation of processes.

Over time, Northern Norwegian business leaders have said that it is demanding to recruit, and there is no doubt that the years that will be more demanding.

2026 is just around the corner!

Jeanette Gundersen

Leads the Knowledge Bank

SpareBank 1 Northern Norway

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