The Banque de France lowered its forecast to 0.6 % in 2025 – Liberation
The more the months go by, the more anticipations on French economic activity are stretching. « It is slowed down, but without recession », describes the Director General of Statistics and Studies at the Banque de France, Olivier Garnier. For the third time in a row, the institution revives its forecasts for gross domestic product (GDP) in its conjuncture note published this Wednesday, June 11. It is only waiting for a slight increase of 0.6 % this year (like the European Commission in May), while it was expected 0.7 % in His projections of March (on which the Bayrou government had supported to revise its own hypotheses), 0.9 % in those in December And even 1.2 % in those of September… For the following years also, it is less optimistic than previously, with growth at 1 % in 2026 and then to 1.2 % in 2027. Enough to complicate the preparation of the budget for 2026 by the Bayrou government.
These new degradations have a lot to do with the Trumpist trade policy and its untimely recovery in customs duties and with the high level of uncertainty that surround global economic activity. Even if France is relatively spared, it would cost it, over three years, 0.4 point of GDP. « The effect of uncertainty is more important than the direct effect of prices over three years », underlines Olivier Garnier. And again, the assumptions taken into account and stopped on May 21 (two days before the threat of customs duties at 50 % brandished by Trump) are rather optimistic: they bet on an absence of climbing with the President of the United States. The so -called “reciprocal” customs duties of 10 % on European Union exports without reprisals, as well as the sectoral measures already in force are integrated, such as the 25 % of steel and automotive taxes.
In an alternative scenario known as « severe », with customs duties on European products at 20 % and retaliatory measures of the same magnitude on American products, the cost would be higher for French activity, 0.3 points of GDP less this year and as much as possible. This would bring growth to a tiny 0.3 % this year and then to 0.7 % next year. Without notable consequence, on the other hand, on inflation.
In the “central” scenario, if the exports are expected in a strong slowdown « Under the effect of the increase in American customs duties, the drop in demand addressed extra-zone euro and the assessment of the exchange rate », French domestic demand would be roughly the blow by changing composition. « The slightest contribution of private demand would be offset by a higher public request », provides for the conjuncture note.
Household consumption would still remain « The main engine of growth » By 2027, although you are less vigorous this year. It is expected up 0.7 % against 0.9 % last year. The household savings rate should not soon find its levels lower before the pandemic. After 18.2 % of the gross disposable income of households in 2024, this rate would be 18.1 % this year, 17.4 % in 2026 and 16.8 % in 2027. « This is an accounting effect, Consider Olivier Garnier. Avoid interpreting the movements of savings rates as reflecting household behavior. ”
As for inflation, it would remain low. The harmonized consumer price index (which serves as the basis for international comparisons) would only be 1 % this year, due to the pronounced decline in energy prices. For the Banque de France, the progression of unemployment rate should be contained, from 7.4 % in 2024 to 7.6 % of the working population this year, 7.7 % next year and then 7.4 % in 2027. Better prospects that would be linked to a lower catch -up of past productivity losses.
