The average deposit rate of citizens went down

By the beginning of June 2025, the average bets on citizens’ deposits in the largest banks fell to a half -year minimum. According to experts, a decrease in bets will become a long -term trend. Bankers expect depositors to try to fix the profitability, transferring funds into longer deposits. In general, the deposit base will grow by about 10%at the end of the year, which is almost three times less than in 2024, but it is quite consistent with the tendency to slow down the growth of lending, the rating agencies believe.

According to the financial market, the Finnish market, the average rate on a half-year deposit in the top 50 banks dropped to a minimum since October 2024. Currently, the average rate on a six-month deposit in the TOP-50 banks is 19.3%, 18.6% per annum of the annual deposit, the marketplace data indicate. By the beginning of June 2025, the maximum rate on six-month deposits in the TOP-50 banks is 20.8% per annum, and on the annual deposit-20.75%, said Igor Alutin, senior managing director of the Moscow Business, the development of electronic platforms and the final-service project.

These values ​​are already lower than the current level of the key rate (21%) and continue to decrease, despite its preservation at the current level from October 28, 2024. “However, in the medium -term perspective, the beginning of the cycle of reducing the key rate is inevitable,” said Yuri Belikov, the managing director of the rating agency of the RA Rating Agency.

The decrease in rates by banks began in early 2025, while the flow of population funds for the first four months was heterogeneous, follows from the data of the Central Bank.

So, in January there was a seasonal outflow of funds (–0.8%, -0.5 trillion rubles; after +7.2%, +3.9 trillion rubles in December). February showed an increase in funds ( +1.9%, +1.1 trillion rubles). In March, growth slowed down ( +0.8%, +0.5 trillion rubles). In April, the populations in banks increased significantly – by 2.8% (+1.6 trillion rubles), which the Central Bank also connects with the indexation of pensions and benefits and their earlier payment before the May holidays. At the same time, an increase in funds in urgent deposits in rubles is comparable to March (+0.6 trillion rubles, +1.6%), follows from the data of the Central Bank.

Bankers and experts believe that against the backdrop of a decrease in betting rates, the growth rate of the deposit base will slow down. According to the expert RA, in 2025, an increase in individuals of individuals in accounts and deposits can be about 10% (in 2024 – 28%). In Akra, it is noted that « since the beginning of the year, the means of individuals have grown by just more than 3%, it can be expected that such pace will remain in the next month. » In VTB, the amount of funds raised in rubles in five months increased by more than 300 billion rubles. And stepped over 10.9 trillion rubles. According to the results of the first half of the year, the ruble portfolio of savings in Russia will exceed 57.5 trillion (+7.3%), and at the end of the year it can reach 65 trillion (+21%), predict there.

A decrease in bets can contribute to the overflow of deposits from short to longer, notes Mikhail Doronkin, managing director of the NCR rating agency. The deputy chairman of the Board of Absolute Bank Anton Pavlov draws attention to the fact that many customers seek to fix the current conditions and open longer deposits: preferences have shifted from 3-6 months to 6-12 months. At the same time, PSB predicts that if the key rate will decrease in the near future, then the rates for long -term deposits (from year) on the banking market can fall to 12–13%by the end of the year.

Igor Alutin draws attention to the fact that the current cycle of reducing bets on deposits does not have a significant impact on the behavior of depositors. As a survey conducted by the “finers” showed, 27% of Russians did not notice the decrease at all. Ruble deposits remain one of the most profitable financial instruments, notes Igor Alutin. Anton Pavlov believes that a decrease in the savings activity of the population and the transition to active consumption can occur when the key rate is reduced to 10-12%.

In a decrease in betting on deposits and a decrease in the growth rate of raised funds, experts do not see risks for the banking system. So, Yuri Belikov notes that, given the slowdown in lending, this trend is appropriate. ARKRA Director Valery Piven believes that, as the monetary policy is softened, the funds of individuals can flow into other assets, but this will hardly be accompanied by an increase in liquidity risk.

Elena Vanyushina, Ksenia Dementieva