The average check for online purchases will continue to fall
The average check when buying goods on marketplaces according to the results of 2025 will decrease by more than 8%, experts predict. Single revolutions will also be reduced, including due to the growth of costs. The main costs of sellers are now still storage and delivery of goods, as well as the payment of the commission to online platforms.
According to the results of 2025, the average check as a whole with an online purchase will be 1.3 thousand rubles, which is less than 8.4% a year by the year, it is predicted in the consulting company IBC Real Estate. This is due to the fact that consumers are increasingly buying inexpensive goods on Internet sites, explains Yevgeny Pomugin, head of the Department of Work and Production Premises IBC REAL ESTATE. The penetration of online locals into remote settlements, where the purchasing power is noticeably lower than in large cities, adds the managing partner of Vanchugov and Partners Alexei Vanchugov to a decrease in the average check.
At the same time, the revolutions of the villagers from among small and medium -sized businesses are growing more slowly. In January – February 2025, this indicator amounted to 6% of the year, which is lower than the inflation rate, says Askar Rakhimberdiev, CEO of the MOSSKY service.
However, other electronic trading market analysts do not agree with such forecasts.
According to the leading analyst Data Insight, Olga Pashkova, in 2025 the average check with online orders will grow by 5% a year by about 1.6 thousand rubles. Ekaterina Nogai, head of the IBC Real Estate research and analytics department, says that according to the results of 2025, the average check in the E-commerce will increase in two segments-food products (by 10% of the year), equipment and electronics (by 24%).
Sellers on marketplaces will try to compensate for a decrease in the average check by rising prices for their products. About 19% of the sellers of online sites surveyed by the Mosklad service intend to do this in 2025, says Askar Rakhimberdiev.
A decrease in the average check and, accordingly, the revolutions of sellers on marketplaces are applied to the increasing costs of singers.
So, for example, in 2025, the average commission, levied by marketplaces from the seller from each transaction, can grow by an average of 10–20%, Mr. Rakhimberdiev notes. According to him, additional expenses are associated with the increase in the cost of storage and acceptance of goods, as well as with the logistics expenses of sellers, which can not always be predicted due to the load of warehouses.
Now logistics remains a loss-making area for online sites, notes Alexei Vanchugov. “They try to solve this problem at the expense of singers, but in the future we can expect differentiation of tariffs and rising prices for the delivery services of small goods for consumers,” predicts Alexei Vanchugov.
Also, the additional costs that the marketplaces and sellers are faced with on an ongoing basis – this is the return of goods, adds Ekaterina Nogai. It recalls that online sites made attempts to manage return by introducing special tariffs. Ozon told Kommersant that marketplaces reduce orders of orders due to the scale of turnover.
In Megamarket, Wildberries and Yandex.Markete, they did not answer the request of Kommersant.
Reducing the average check and an increase in costs during market trading have led to the fact that from December 2024 to February 2025, demand from small and medium -sized businesses for franchises for orders issuing (PVZ), according to Franshiza.ru, decreased by 14% of the year and 23% compared to the same period of 2023 (See “Kommersant” from March 24). According to Topfranchise, in January 2025, interest in the opening of the Wildberries PVZ decreased by 19.6%, Ozon – by 12%.
