The authorities are ready to allocate 6 billion rubles from Russian Railways. for compensation for discounts for coal miners
The government is ready to finance a discount from the budget for the export of coal for export by rail to the north-west and south for 6 billion rubles. This is about a third of the amount necessary for zero profitability, according to the assessment of the analytical center of the fuel and energy complex of the Ministry of Energy. In addition, in connection with the refusal of companies, even from guaranteed export volumes to the east, the authorities want to set as a condition for the provision of a Khakasy “Vezi or Pay” quota. Market participants believe that the discount for the south will not give results, since the cargo flow is limited by the railway. And Khakassia at current prices is unlikely to have interest in the export of coal to the east, experts say.
The authorities are ready to allocate Russian Railways for compensation for discounts of 12.8% for coal miners who send their products to the ports of the north-west and south, 6 billion rubles. This follows from the minutes of the meeting with the head of government Mikhail Mishustin on May 29 (Kommersant has). The discount to the railway tariff of 12.8% was fundamentally approved by the president on May 7, it should be compensated by the monopolies from the budget (see Kommersant on May 13). Addressions of the discount – the organization of the coal industry of the Siberian Federal District, the type of coal is not indicated.
Experts and market participants diverge in assessing the sufficiency of the amount. A source of Kommersant in the coal industry notes that 6 billion rubles. Little at the current prices and course. According to him, the south direction will only increase the price of the transshipment: not a single additional ton will go there because the flow to the south is not limited by the economy, but by the railway infrastructure.
According to the March study of the AC FEC of the Ministry of Energy, to withdraw coal export to zero profitability for a discount of 12.8%, 17 billion rubles are needed: 12 billion rubles. -In relation to the northwest, 5 billion rubles. – To the south.
According to the NEFT Research partner in consulting Alexander Kotov, taking into account the loss of coal exports from Kuzbass through the ports of the south and north-west at 2–2.5 rubles. per ton, the agreed discount stimulates supplies to the west in a volume of not more than 3 million tons. Independent industrial expert Maxim Khudalov believes that this compensation should be enough for 24–25 million tons, which is more than half of the possible coal export volumes in the western direction. According to the estimates of the senior analyst of the CCI Roman Shagalov, with the allocation of 6 billion rubles. Coal companies will be provided with export 9–9.5 million tons.
The amount of payment for a discount is not the only restriction proposed by the government. As stated in the protocol, the guaranteed volumes of export supplies to the east are proposed to provide the Khakassia to the East to be provided on the terms of “vezi or pay”. The discussion of such conditions was reported by the government of Khakassia, which indirectly indicates the loss of attractiveness and the eastern direction, the most marginal for Russian coal (see Kommersant on May 27).
The Russian Railways reported “Kommersant” that they were interested in “increasing the real volume of transportation”: overestimation of the volume of applications over the existing cargo base reduces the possibility of receiving other goods for transportation, violates the technology and worsens the economy of railway transport. According to the Institute of Economics and the Development of Transport, the Russian Railways is indicated in May, in May, 5.8 million tons of coal were not presented for loading, including 4.4 million tons for export, of which 3 million tons are east. The implementation of the principle of “vesi or pay”, added to the company, will avoid intentional distortion of the volume of need for transportation, increase the prediction of cargo flows, ensure guarantees for the payback of investment projects for the development of infrastructure, and generally increase the efficiency of railway transport.
With greater attractiveness of coal exports for coal miners eastward, where non -back is about 100-200 rubles. There is more than in the south and northwest, the “Vezi or Pay” formula bears the risks of fines in case of non-exchanging of the declared volumes, and Alexander Kotov warns. According to him, in conditions of weak demand in the main markets – in India and China, which exerts pressure on the cost of coal with delivery to these countries, exports to the east for many Russian companies becomes unprofitable. “At present, a decrease in electricity production on coal in India and China is predicted. Some traders are inclined to hold their goods in anticipation of price restoration, however, according to individual market participants, the prices will probably continue to decline, ”the analyst says. Maxim Khudalov believes that Khakassia at current prices is unlikely to be lucky to east. “Hope is only that coal prices will rise to the end of the year, and then this offer may work,” the expert notes.
