The « 2024 Yr4 » asteroid no longer threatens the Earth, but in 2032 it risks colliding with … the moon

By Samuel Mark, students-

After months of concern about a possible clash with the Earth, astronomers have confirmed that the asteroid « 2024 Yr4 » will not hit our planet.

The news brought relief earlier this year, when predictions suggested a possible blow to the southern hemisphere before Christmas of 2032. However, a new scenario has come to light – this time the moon is in the spotlight.

According to the latest data analyzed by NASA scientists, in collaboration with the James Webb’s spatial observations, the probability of hitting the moon on December 22, 2032 has increased significantly. According to up-to-date calculations, the chance of an impact is 4.3 percent-an increase in earlier estimates of 1.7 and 3.8 percent.

If this collision occurs, NASA predicts that the asteroid will create a crater with a diameter of about 1,200 meters on the surface of the moon. However, experts point out that, even in the event of a shock, the event is not expected to affect the moon orbit or have consequences for the land, including influences on ocean tides.

The asteroid will be invisible to terrestrial telescopes by 2028, when it is expected to be observed again to determine the final trajectory more accurately. Meanwhile, the international community of astronomy continues the intense monitoring of this celestial object.

Although the moon has experienced many strokes from such bodies in its history, it would be the first time such an impact could be observed « live » from the ground – even with binoculars in favorable weather conditions.

Meanwhile, scientists remain focused to ensure that every possible scenario is under full control and documented for scientific purposes