Tesla collects a « bonus » of 9,000 euros for each car sold in Europe. But now the green credits are at risk

« We will sell 20 million cars in 2030 »; « We will get to the stock exchange on the bag over $ 10,000 billion »; « We will produce a million humanoid robots per year. » Tesla has always been an aspirational company: the race of its titles at Wall Street is fueled by the fuel of the imaginative plans of Elon Musk. The entrepreneur investors gave so much credit to push Last December Tesla at a capitalization peak of $ 1500 billion, more than the sum of all the other listed manufacturersDespite the Texan house, 2% of global registrations are worth the house.

The collapse of Tesla sales

Since thenhowever, the spell seems to have broken: The Tesla actions price halved compared to the maximum, burning over 700 billion of capitalization. A sign that, while still assigning him an exorbitant evaluation, the market has started to consider not only the ambitions of Musk, but also the current numbers of the group. Which were far from exciting. Between January and March of this year, Tesla’s sales dropped by 13%, revenues dropped by 9% to 19.3 billion dollars and net profit collapsed by 71% to 409 million.

Musk’s admissions

« Uncertainty in the car and energy sector continues to increase because the evolution of commercial policies has a negative impact on global supply chains and on the structure of Tesla costs and our competitors », wrote the group in its quarterly note. « This dynamic, combined with the change of political feeling, could have a significant impact on the demand of our products in the short term ». Out of the accounting mannerism, These are two sensational admissions, but not surprising since that of the car is perhaps the most globalized industry.

The entrepreneur and duties

First of all, Donald Trump’s duties are causing many problems to Tesla and its supply chain which, despite the location efforts, still depends a lot from China, especially for batteries. « I said several times that lowering commercial barriers increases prosperity, » Musk highlighted analysts underlinedwhich since last January has guided the Department for Government Efficiency (Doge). « But I am only one of the consultants of the President of the United States and the decision is only up to him and it is his responsibility ».

The renunciation of the doge

Tesla then recognized that Musk’s political overexposure and its interference in the internal affairs of other countries are damaging the affairs of its main company. Between January and March Tesla sales in Europe decreased by 37%. In California, original homeland and always Roccaforte di Tesla, in the first quarter the market share of the house today located in Austin was reduced from 56 to 44%. The drop in enrollments depends, of course, on the restyling in the course of the SUV Model Y, the best -selling car in the world. But the industrial factors were added the emotional ones, linked to the extreme positions of Musk and to his work as a doge. Who, soon, could end. « Starting next month I will dedicate much more time to Tesla, » the entrepreneur anticipated That he will limit the government commitments « one two days a week » to « because the president will want it » (judging by the daily clashes with the other members of the administration, for a short time).

The seniority of the range

The news of the « step back » of the doge – combined with the confirmation of the Launch of a low -price Tesla, of the Cybercab robotaxi service and optimus robots – He pushed Tesla to a bounce of 5.3%on the stock exchange. The hope of the investors is that Musk’s detachment from politics can repair the damage to the image suffered by the brand and bring back the demiurge of the electric car (and the privatization of space). It will not be so simple. « Tesla has a structural problem that is the son of four factors: the competitiveness of the product, the seniority of the range of vehicles, the political exposure of Musk and, consequently, the distraction of management »remarks Dario Duse, responsible for Italy of Alixpartners and Automotive & Industrial Team Emea leader. « Tesla was an avant -garde innovator of the electrification and connected services: from autonomous guide to the infrastructure owner of sale and charging », he continues. Today, however, «it is no longer like that: Many of its characteristics are also found on European or Chinese models that have passed Tesla in the meantime». Returning from the Shanghai Motor Show, Duse cites « an example for everyone: the central tablet, initially a symbol of Tesla vehicles, is now present on almost all the cars, and in China it is often also associated with an additional screen for the passenger ».

Chinese competition

In short, the competition bites the revenues and the margins of Tesla. First of all in China, a market that is worth 40% of the sales of the house but increasingly disputed by local manufacturers such as Byd. But also in Europe, where the electric offer of Volkswagen, Renault. Stellantis and other European groups is becoming more competitive, creating a double problem in Tesla. The first is to respond to the counter -offensive, updating its range. « To develop new vehicles you need billionaire investments and a constant commitment of managers », Duse observes. «Tesla has no problem facing the former; Instead, there is some doubts regarding the dedication of the leaders who, already on other occasions, have struggled to respect the roadmaps indicated in the market « .

The rebus of green credits

The second problem is that The growth of Stellantis & Co’s electrical registrations will affect one of the most profitable lines of Tesla activities: the sale of green certificates to European rivals. In fact, European regulations impose an annual roof of CO2 emissions to each house which, if clear, involves the payment of heavy fines. However, manufacturers cannot be able to avoid penalties by purchasing « pollution space » from other houses that are below the threshold in order to fall within the limits or at least approach them.

Tesla’s profits

Selling only electric cars, in recent years Tesla has had a lot of emission margin to give in to competing groups such as Stellantis. « The sale of emission credits supported revenues and, above all, Tesla’s profits, » recalls Duse, « Last year the group collected 2.7 billion in revenues, approximately equivalent to a bonus of 8/9 thousand euros for each car delivered in Europe », Calculate Duse, « a bonus, note well, which is all profit because it is associated with the mere sale of an electric car and does not involve any additional cost for Tesla ».

The collection for Tesla

Between 2012 and 2024, the American house has sold green certified for 11.6 billion to other European homes who were desperate to return to the emission limits established by the EU and thus avoid the heavy fines foreseen for the breakdown. This need has become less pressing now that electrical sales show encouraging signals (they climbed to 15.2% of the European market) and that The EU has softened the roof of CO2, calculating respect for the average of three years. « We have passed several crises over the years and have gone several times, perhaps 12, close to death, » Musk recalled to analysts, reassuring: « There are some difficulties, but this is not one of those times ».