Taiwan: The crucial island

2027 may be the decisive year for Taiwan’s future. American experts warn of a Chinese invasion on this date, and the Chinese are preparing for the one that may be the inflection point of the international order. « While we have focused on Ukraine, » said historian Niall Ferguson in an interview with Peter Robinson for the Hoover Institute, « the true action is in the Taiwan Strait » and « in Indo-Pacific. »

The Chinese ambitions in relation to the territory are known, but will the United States be prepared to contain Beijing’s advance?
« The principle of one China has a clear and unequivocal meaning, that is, there is only one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China and the Government of the Popular Republic of China is the only legal government that represents the whole of China, » the clearest definition of Chinese politics in relation to Taiwan. This excerpt, for example, is from an official statement of the Mission of the Popular Republic of China with the European Union in 2022.
The China delegation in Europe continues, saying that “Taiwan belongs to China since ancient times. The oldest references to this dating back to the year 230. From the twelfth century, all the imperial central governments of China created administrative bodies to exercise jurisdiction about Penghu and Taiwan. Thus, it is clear that China’s aspirations to master Taiwan are a historical claim, a sign that the Chinese want to maintain their imperial territory, reinforcing the idea of ​​some geopolitical analysts that the Era of Empires never ended, was simply reinvented.

This is in tune with Putin’s statement on Ukraine, which declared, less than a year before the large -scale invasion, that « Russians and Ukrainians were one people » and that both shared « essentially the same historical and spiritual space. »

Still, Russian and Chinese diplomacy behave in different ways. As Fareed Zakaria said in 2021, « China is not Russia » because « Russia has acted as a destructive state », « all it does is destabilize » and « benefits from instability », while « China is much more a great classic power that is simply trying to become increasingly and more and more important, and that has always valued stability. »

Starting from the principle of Zakaria, how can China totally attach Taiwan without entering an open war, as Putin did in Ukraine? Niall Ferguson, in the same interview, made his forecast: “It’s not that he (Xi Jinping) will invade, I don’t even think he does a block, there are much more intelligent things he can do and that they will be much harder to answer. Suppose he says « From now on, all the ships that come in and out of tapei have to go through Chinese customs and we will send ships from the coast guard to do so. What do we do then? »

The ‘Davidson Window’
Tensions between the US and China increased substantially during the first Trump administration. At the beginning of Joe Biden’s term, Philip S. Davidson, commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command between 2018 and 2021, presented himself before the Senate and sounded the alarms regarding a possible attack by Beijing to Taiwan, based mainly on the significant increase in the military capacity of the popular liberation army and the successive exercises in Estreito. « The threat will be manifested, » said Davidson, « over the next six years. »

It is precisely from this statement that the concerns of a Chinese attack in 2027 arise, a period that came to be known as the ‘Davidson window’. This year, the Chinese government announced the increase in expense in defense of 7.2%, about $ 250 billion. But, according to Newsweek, « taking into account the unlavod expenses … Some analysts estimate that the actual amount is over $ 700 billion. »

Why do you matter so much Taiwan?
But what is Taiwan so important that it makes the island a crucial piece in 21st century geopolitical chess? For the US, Taiwan is fundamental in several vectors, but mainly in two: geography and the economy. As for the geographical issue, as I said in 2023 Ely Ratner, then Deputy Secretary of State for Defense, quoted by Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), ‘Taiwan is at a critical point within the first chain of islands, anchoring a network of US allies and partners (…) which is fundamental to the security of the region and the defense of US vital interests in Indo-Pacific’.

As far as the economy is, the same piece as CFR shows that “a Chinese attack on Taiwan, regardless of its success or the United States deciding to intervene, would also trigger global economic depression and reduce world economic production from world economic production. Taiwan companies make almost 70% of world semiconductors and about 90% of the most advanced chips. If the world loses Taiwan’s production capacity, no other company will be able to fill the emptiness in the short term. This aspect is particularly important in a world where innovation and technology are two of the great catalysts of nations development. The result of these tensions may dictate the future of the international system, which is now through a period of profound restructuring.