Stubbornly resisting inflation for price stops

We can’t expect a lot of good in the coming months

According to János Nagy, an analyst at Erste Bank, there is no prospect of annual inflation by the end of autumn. The reason for this is because the price index has been inherited from the previous year that will be difficult to produce significantly smaller than current inflation.

In addition, he said it is worth seeing that inflation numbers starting with 4 are largely due to administrative measures, which will be putting a timed shadow into the system later, presumably next year. (That is, now this is artificially inflation. Government marginal stops and voluntary price stops under government pressure could be higher, up to 5 percent, but if one of them disappears, it will almost automatically increase inflation.

According to János Nagy, the dynamics of domestic transformation are especially exciting with the image of the stagnant economy. If the much -anticipated recovery occurs, it can be embedded in further price increases. On the other hand, the now observable loosening of the labor market (downturn in employment, slowing down wage dynamics) can moderate the shadow primarily in services. Overall, Erste expects an average annual increase to 4.7 percent.

Government is willing even to further price restrictions

The government’s reaction does not explain why inflation has grown again despite the agreements and artificial price regulations of recent months. In a statement, the Ministry of National Economy states that « the government will always take action against unjustified price increases to protect Hungarian families and pensioners. »

He then lists the results of the actions and agreements of recent months: « On March 17, the government introduced 30 basic food categories to reducing margins and extended it to 30 more product categories on May 19, such as household and chemicals, cleaning and beauty articles, which resulted In product categories, the average price of food decreased by 19.6%. The NGM indicates that the effect of the drugstore margin stop will appear primarily in June inflation. The reason for this is that the measure was introduced in the second half of May, so the data of the Statistical Office may have been less expanded.

The NGM also listed the voluntary price stops already implemented, which has been accepted with financial institutions, insurers and telecommunications companies to freeze service providers and account management fees. According to the ministry, voluntary price restrictions are expected to reduce total inflation by 0.3 percentage points overall. Here, however, it is important to note that they have already been realized, so they have already been integrated into May inflation.

There is a volunteer price stop that is still ahead of us, non -prescription, free -flooded medicines. The ministry writes that « the government has discussed with pharmaceutical manufacturers on voluntary restrictions on the drug prices. The conclusion of the talks is expected this week. » There will not be a general price reduction here, but the price of specific preparations will be frozen. 25 such drugs are expected.

According to the NGM, the government aims to reduce inflation below 4 percent and keep food inflation below 5 percent. To this end, the Ministry of National Economy is ready to introduce another price restriction. In his current announcement, he is constantly monitoring the price of the price reduction and the price of food and household items not subject to the price. In the event that it experiences cross -prices for products that are not belonging to margin reduction (that is, their losses are compensated by the merchants by expensive, the government will extend the price reduction.

Traders say inflation is not they do

In this connection, the National Trade Association notes that it has not increased prices since the end of April, and in many cases have fallen. In their view, retail sales did not burden the loss of the margin on other products, no cross -prices. In addition, retail sales successfully protected the pre -margin’s supplier prices by the end of May.

However, the price increase is even if retail margins are fixed in the highest food product circles, as in this case they do not record the price, but to maximize the merchant’s supplier prices.

According to the OKSZ, it is clear that the price increase is not generated by retail. Retail, through the largest chains’ competitive competition, simply dampens the shadow of supplier by constantly competing for suppliers to achieve better prices and offers actions for customers.

The big chain alliance claims that this healthy and consumer -friendly competition is impossible by the state when it comes to market processes sweeping real problems under the carpet. Failure to run the margin at the end of May, they believe that suppliers will try to enforce their postponed price increase intentions so far, and losses make it difficult for stores to start better promotions. We do not do the price increase, and the price stop does not favor consumers – summarizes the position of the OKSZ.

In June, even more prices are expected

Private banker-mfor ditch survey does not project much good for inflation in June, which has already investigated the amount of large shopping in the hypermarkets in early June.

According to the ads published on Tuesday After three months of decrease in June, the trench value rose again. In Auchan, Interspar and Tesco, an increase was between 1.3 and 5.8 percent, with average monthly rise in 2.9 percent.

Thus, the total big shopping increased to HUF 37,799, costing HUF 1073 more than in May. On an annual basis, the increase in price was 7.9 percent, which is a surplus of 2782 forints compared to June last year. The largest annual price rise was shown by apples (+50 percent), orange juice (+47 percent) and chocolate. Five of the price stop products have become cheaper in one year, but the majority is still more expensive.

By June, the price of products often purchased by the elderly has risen again: the MFOR Retired Trench value It increased by $ 507, or 1.7 percent compared to May, so it rose to $ 29,705. Although this is growing compared to the declining trend since early March, prices are still 8.2 percent lower than three months. At the same time, the trench level is above November last year.

In the annual comparison, the retired trench was 7.4 percent more expensive, which is a $ 2057 extra expense compared to June last year. The contents of the 21 products are determined on the basis of the CSO consumption statistics, weighted with the prices of the three major domestic hypermarkets (Auchan, Interspar, Tesco).