Strategic abstention and non -represented voters
Whenever there are legislative elections, some updated studies come to alert, and well, for an increasingly disproportionate electoral system that makes each electoral act grow the number of voters who do not feel represented, that is, they will not elect any deputy because they did not vote for the two main parties of the political system, so their votes are for nothing.
About this I wanted to add that I was the first researcher in Portugal to warn of this phenomenon in 2007, through the analysis I made of the various elections that occurred in the democratic period, where I presented these numbers (which, then, easily any other person updates them) but also crossed this legislative data with the municipal data and discovered something important and contradicted the “law of political science” that defines that the voters voted that voters voters voters. More in the first -order (legislative) elections because they are considered more important than in second -order (municipal and presidential elections, even saying that European ones are third order). That is, of the 20 circles in Portugal this did not happen in 13 (all small and some medium) which means that people in these circles voted more in municipalities than in legislatures.
This behavior explains that people realize that in municipalities their vote counts more (single circle) than in legislatures, so it is not to scare a higher abstention rate.
But reflecting on abstention, which is the main reason for this article, would begin by stating that it is not what it seems and that this phenomenon is too devised. To begin with, even before opening the ballot boxes there is abstention because those who died cannot vote (is it?). Yes, I also did several studies on ghost voters with my friend Luís Teixeira (in 2007 and after that). It follows that many voters will not consciously vote, this is called strategic abstention. In this regard, I take a note that I was the first world researcher to investigate this phenomenon and was the father of the concept of strategic electoral behavior (which also includes the strategic vote), precisely in my master’s thesis on strategic vote. This is worth several emails a week to communicate that I was mentioned somewhere.
Imagine the reader that party A has 10,000 votes and party B equally 10,000 votes. If there is a transfer of 5,000 votes from A to B, O A is 5,000 and B with 15,000, ie a difference of 10,000 when only 5,000 were transferred. It is this phenomenon that usually, in Portugal, dictates the victory of the PS or PSD of the so -called centrão that decides elections, people who now vote for the PS now in the PSD, where a vote that leaves from one another represents 2 difference between them. Why this explanation? It is because many people are angry with the party where they usually vote or simply are angry with the “system” and consciously will not vote, preferring this to transfer their vote to another party (in this case the effect is less severe to the party in which it is not vote as it is good to see). Next time dear reader when he heard the “comments” of the custom to say that abstention is high, not too important. The last elections were an example, as many more were to vote (I assume that it arrives because of the immigration phenomenon) although the number of voters has risen exponentially in recent years.
One way to solve this problem of lack of representativeness and greater abstention would be a unique circle, or at least one of compensation. But, of course, PS and PSD have no interest because they are highly benefited by the current system, and the most damaged medium and small parties are. For now there seems to be the courage of Alberto João Jardim, who benefiting from absolute majorities thanks to a system of circles in Madeira (similar to the National Electoral System) approved the change to a single circle hurting himself and his party in the name of fairer elections. Which is why Miguel Albuquerque has had difficulty forming majorities. I refer to this situation because the « comments » do not speak in this, unfortunately, but should do so.
Finally and because we are 3 weeks of the elections, I predict (and desire) an absolute majority between AD (PSD and CDs) + IL, because the Portuguese want (and need) a change government that lasts 4 years. I believe the undecided will give this majority and still provide for a small descent of the arrival. This despite the good discourses of Ventura and discontent in the face of immigration, but what is fact that Ventura has not gone to the government, has joined the PS to rule from Parliament and voters should not forgive.
Politologist
