Sofia Transport « strike » and its sunken gemias
For the so -called « strike », so far no one has bothered to calculate even « knee » what it means for the economy of Sofia and the country. However, it is obvious that it is associated with it, so far, non -refundable costs (ie « sunken hemias »).
They are always difficult to calculate. It is not here to explain why it is. But it would also be a pointless claim that such a calculation should be expected from the « beneficiaries » of the solution to the problems they caused by the Ministry of Finance, the municipal authorities, its transport companies or the commentators of the « strike » passions.
Calculation of direct unforeseen consequences
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The important details in this landscape are the following facts:
- Of the 500 million BGN 37 million in question, they are to increase the salaries by 15%;
- The own revenue of Sofia transport companies is BGN 183 million (or 35%), the remaining expenses are funded by the municipal and central budget, with the contribution of the latter being 155 million;
- More than BGN 100 million from the budget is for salaries; Of these, 10 are for a metropolitan one that does not strike.
Some stylized assumptions are required to make a calculation. In order to perceive a relatively conservative, risk -free approach, most of the departure is based on already established indicators. Here are the assumptions:
- The trips for 2024 are 324 million pieces or 887.7 thousand per day or 37 thousand per hour (if it is assumed that the transport works throughout the day);
- Half of the passenger transport in Sofia during the strike are served by the subway, ie. Other transport companies have not provided the service to 18,000 potential passengers per hour;
- 60% of trips are for working people, at the level of employment in the capital for 2023, of 78% of the population in active, ie. The remaining 40% are walking, with their own transportation or to visitors to the city;
- I accept that the « strike » lasts for four days and that the loss of working hours is one hour a day or half a day for the entire period of its conduct.
Through the « gross added value » (BDS) of one busy, when reporting to the city of Sofia, it is possible to outline the approximate picture of the lost benefits or the sunken gemies for the economy.
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| These are calculations based on the indicators for 2023, but if we update them for 2024, the amount of the missed direct benefits will probably increase to about BGN 49 million. This is more than three times more than proposed by the central budget to increase the salaries of land transport employees of BGN 15 million. |
Direct « sunken gemias »
With the assumptions, it turns out that at the time of the end of the « strike », the loss for the economy of Sofia and the country would be BGN 94.5 million for one working day, « seized » by the « strike ».
Considering the « saved » costs for daily investment in the public transport of Sofia (fuel, electricity and salaries), the loss is approximately BGN 90 million per day or BGN 45 million, upon assumption that the actually unsuccessful BDS is for half a day – BGN 45 million.
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Hardly calculate « gemias »
In view of the level of payment of urban transport employees (for them it is slightly higher than the average gross monthly salary in Sofia-3 386 BGN), the 15 % increase from last year and the « congestion effect » when the urban transport is effective, the « strike » is not a strike but a racket.
| This form of racketeering is typical. It is often used by trade unions, other political figures, or representative of various subsidized areas of the economy. |
The success of the racket through the « strike » of the aboveground transport in Sofia cannot but give rise to hope for other such rackets in the near future.
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This success is an obvious loss for taxpayers from all over Bulgaria. They also pay the heating of Sofia.
Naturally, different clarifications can be added to these stylized calculations. But the potential unforeseen consequences of the repetition of the racket require more thorough analysis.
