Shareholders are preparing dividends by more than 2 trillion rubles

The councils of directors of large Russian companies recommended shareholders to pay dividends in the amount of more than 2.03 trillion rubles, which is 3% more than a year earlier. Representatives of the financial sector led by Sberbank are ready to list almost half of them. However, in the context of a rigid monetary policy bOThe lounger part of the payments that private investors will receive will be reinvested in bonds, and therefore do not expect strong positive influence in the market.

According to Kommersant, by April 23, the councils of the directors of almost three dozen issuers recommended annual (for 2024) and intermediate (first quarter of 2025) dividends totaling 2.03 trillion rubles. This result was 3% exceeded the declared dividends of the same issuers at the beginning of last year. Meetings of shareholders of nine issuers (including Polyus, Yandex, Novatek) have already approved the payment of 300 billion rubles proposed by the Boards of Directors (SD). For other companies, the meetings of shareholders will be held in the next two months. At the same time, refusals to approve the shareholders of the proposals of the board of directors in exceptional cases, the most high -profile of which was according to Gazprom shares three years ago (See “Kommersant” dated July 1, 2022), therefore, it is worth expecting the declared payments.

Leadership in the size of dividend payments, as last year, holds Sberbank, the Supervisory Board of which recommended paying almost 787 billion rubles for 2024, or 34.84 rubles. On ordinary and privileged promotions. This is 4.6% higher than payments a year earlier and corresponds to a dividend yield of more than 11%. Lukoil expectedly included in the three record holders in terms of payments, the SD recommended to pay shareholders for the fourth quarter of 2024 348 billion rubles, or 541 rubles. per share. This corresponds to a dividend yield of 8%. In third place, unexpectedly for the market “Corporate Center of X5 Retail Group), which will send almost 176 billion rubles to dividends, or 648 rubles. per share, which corresponds to dividend yield above 19%. “From a pleasant surprise, one can distinguish the recommendation“ Tatneft ”(43.11 rubles for ordinary and privileged shares; more than 100 billion rubles. « B« ), which turned out to be significantly – almost 25% – above the market expectations,” said Mikhail Nesterov, head of the analytical department of TKB Investment Partners.

However, the hopes of market participants did not materialize regarding the payments of metallurgical companies, until recently, large dividends payers.

Since the beginning of the year, the tips of the directors of Severstal and TMK, as well as the management of Norilsk Nickel, recommended not to pay dividends. Moreover, Severstal will not pay either for the fourth quarter of 2024 or for the first quarter of 2025. Maxim Shein does not exclude the Director of Work with BCS Investment BCS, that NLMK, most likely, will be twice as lower than what the market expected due to the fall in the company’s profit. “The weak situation of the Russian steel market and the increased level of capital costs of companies in the sector exert strong pressure on the free cash flow of companies (see“ Kommersant ”of April 23), which will most likely remain in the negative zone this year and, possibly, in 2026, which makes the dividends of irrational,” says Mikhail Nesterov.

However, in the coming days, investors expect announcements on the payment of dividends by a number of large companies, primarily the oil and gas industry. In particular, the analysts of the FG Finams expect recommendations from Gazprom Neft sd – 24 rubles. per share (114 billion rubles), Surgutneftegaz – 0.85 rubles. for an ordinary promotion and 10 rubles. for a privileged action (107 billion rubles). The total payments for 2024, taking into account issuers who have not yet announced dividends, “can be about 2.25 trillion rubles”, evaluated by the analyst of the investment company “Tsiper Broker” Ivan Efanov.

Despite the high payments, analysts do not expect a strong influence of this factor on quotes, since thereOThe most part of the payments will pass « past the market. » According to Ivan Efanov, 60–70% of all payments will be in favor of the state (1.35–1.8 trillion rubles) and only about 10% to private investors (225 billion rubles). The rest falls on corporate investors and foreign shareholders who receive payments to accounts of type C. “taking into account the high key rate, a significant part can be reinvested in the debt market and a smaller part in the action,” Mr. Efanov said.

The main drivers for the stock market in the coming months will remain news from the sphere of geopolitics and the prospects for mitigating the Monetary policy of the Central Bank, analysts of FG Finams note.

And so far they are not in favor of Russian actions. The prospects for completing the Ukrainian conflict look foggy, against the background of high inflation, the transition of the Bank of Russia to a lower key rate is expected no earlier than the second half of the year. According to Mikhail Vasiliev, Chief Analyst of the Council of People’s Commissars of the Council of People’s Commissars, the monetary policy mitigation cycle can begin at meetings in June-July with a decrease in a rate of 100-200 b. n. “If we approach the summer (at the time of most payments) with a decreasing key rate and with improvements in geopolitics, then not only all dividend payments, but also part from deposits and liquidity funds can be reinvested in shares,” Mr. Efanov believes.

Vitaliy Gaidaev, Dmitry Ladygin