Serbia has higher GDP growth by 2012. years than the last 12 years: inflation, corona or a bad model of growth? – Economy

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Serbia for 25 years, counting and forecasts for 2025it increased by 130.8 percent.

Since Serbia, there are greater relative growth in that period from the environment was realized by Albania, Kosovo * and Romania, while other neighboring countries were less successful.

It puts it to Serbia at 86. place among the countries of the world by GDP growth, show the basis of the International Monetary Fund and Calculation of Economist Miroslav Zdravković.

He shared this period on two units, so he counted since 2000. until 2012. year, as since 2013. until 2025. years, which also coincides with the proportion of government in Serbia.

Over the years, numerous factors, from the world economic crisis to the pandemia, the growth of the virus were negatively affected during the years.

What the calculation showed, is that Serbia has achieved GDP growth from 60.3 percent in the first observation, while greater relative growth in the environment achieved Albania, Romania and Bulgaria.

In the second period, according to calculations, Serbia had a slowdown in economic growth.

Zdravkovic explains that it was a consequence of « fiscal consolidation », which influenced the GDP only by 13.7 percent in six-year period, from 2013. until 2018. years.

After, the decline for Virus Korona affected the decline in GDP in 2020. years, so in eight years after 2012. GDP increased by only 17.5 percent, he explains.

In a period of 13 years, including 2025, GDP growth is expected to grow 44 percent, which is less than 60.3 percent in the previous year, but will be almost identical in the world in the world, as well as in the first subpyod.

According to his interpretation, it means that not only Serbia slowed, but the slowdown was generally and probably due to the fall of GDP in most countries in 2020. Years.

Of the neighboring economies, higher relative growth will have Kosovo *, Romania, Montenegro and Albania, while BiH and Croatia are very close to our growth.

In the entire observation period, most relative growth was realized by Guyana, Ethiopia and China, which increased GDP from almost eleven to almost seven times. Venezuela, Yemen, Puerto Rico and Sudan, and the smallest relative growth Italy, Libya and Greece had the largest fall in GDP.

Economist Danilo Šuković explains that this significant growth in the first 12 years is partly the result of a very low base.

« What happened in the 1990s, these were disasters for economics, were sanctions, hyperinflation, wars … that destroyed the economy. Significant growth could be made of a low base, » he states.

However, that growth that went well, as it reminds, stopped the economic crisis in 2008. years.

Regarding growth after 2012. Šuković believes that this slower development is the result of economic policy that « was convicted that there is no success at the long run. »

« There is primarily a problem policy of a fixed exchange rate of the dinar, and it ruins all export economy. It is something that this regime brags, and in the long run, he has disastrous results, » he warns him.

It reminds that the orientation in our country is on foreign direct investment with subsidies that are non-transparent.

« We now have a stack in the inflow of these investments and disinvestments, ie the withdrawal of some investments. Many of the great subsidies are gained. They are neither interested in reinvested, but their profits are out of the country, » Sukovic points out his profit.

He emphasizes that these are some of the main problems, in addition to what we had a covid, who certainly left the consequences.

Our interlocutor also adds that all projects in infrastructure affect growth, but that they are made non-transparent.

« This created fertile soils for lusting anyway of the already great corruption. It cannot be given good results, and as our institutions are trapped and susceptible to corruption, » says Sukovic.

As for fiscal consolidation, he believes that this crisis could be overcome without it.

« It was a marcrating to reduce salaries and pensions, so they caused citizens, and it was a lot of propaganda. Although it was presented as great success, I think it was a great failure, » our interlocutor « , emphasizes our interlocutor.

Sukovic explains that all this story about GDP growth and success in water when seen where we are in Europe by level, and do not grow, GDP per capita.

« We are one of the poorest countries in Europe. It is something that is hiding from citizens, and there is a story of a GDP growth rate of three or four percent to bash the dust into the eyes that we grow faster than some others, » he concludes.

And a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Kragujevac Veroljub Dugalic believes that progress is easier when the basis is low.

« When compared to the low-starting basic basis, then it is easy to distort results. If a low basis, progress can be shown », indicates.

Dugalic thinks it’s playing numbers.

« What was inflation for those 25 years, how many for the first 12 years? The course was 117 dinars, and today it was in dinars 80 percent. It is easy to manipulate numbers, » he warns him.

The real measure of the growth of the social product is a wallet, our interlocutor says.

« When you go to the market, in the store or in a tavern, anywhere. How much you need to give a couple for something, and how compared you, you realize how much GDP growth is, » he explains.

Dugalić also warns that statistics should always be trusted.

« Lie – Big Lie – Statistics, so it goes gradation. Or ‘Statistics Our Dika, what you think that is, to set data to someone. She will show what you want, » he concludes.