Saudi Arabia between two fire – the world
Saudi Arabia has decade tensions and with Israel and Shiite Iran. But now Israel clearly condemns. Because, the Saudis are on the windmen and fearing the big fire in the Middle East.
Just a few hours after Israeli attack on numerous goals in Iran on Friday, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced.
« The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia strongly condemns obvious Israeli aggression against the Brotherly Islamic Republic of IRAN », they announced online X.
This « aggression », adds, undermines the sovereignty and safety of Iran and is a clear violation of international law.
Saudi Arabia in an unenviable position
Saudi Arabia is in a difficult situation. Israel is trying to normalize relations with Arab countries, especially those on the Arabian peninsula.
This policy has led to the so-called Abraham agreements, which redefined relations between Israel and some countries in the region. The goal of the agreement was the establishment and expansion of diplomatic, economic and security relations between Israel and these Arab countries.
In the summer of 2020. United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain signed such an agreement.
Saudi Arabia, however, has not yet concluded an agreement with Israel. Although they have been taking an informal consultation of two countries in years, Riyadh has so far avoided the impression that, as a guardian of the Holy Places, Islam, approaching Israel, could remove from traditional solidarity with Palestinians.
Rapprochement with Iran
This applies even more from 7. October 2023, when the Militant Islamist Organization Hamas – which Germany, European Union, US and some other countries classify as terroristically – attacked the Israeli territory, killed about 1,170 people and abducted 255 people.
Saudi Arabia, like most Arab and Islamic countries, reacted significantly more critical than most Western countries.
According to the BBC report from November 2024, Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman accused Israel for « genocide » in Gaza. However, Saudi Arabia still allows Israeli aircraft flying towards the Emirates, which began in 2020. years.
At the same time, Riyadh closered to Tehran in recent years. After two countries in 2016, they interrupted diplomatic relations, they renewed them in March 2023. With the mediation of China.
According to Markus Schnayer, Middle Eastern experts in the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Beirut, Bay State – Before all Saudi Arabia and Emirates, have already had a current scenario in mind.
« In the main cities of the Arabian Peninsula, they are up to the silver case if the war breaks between Israel and Iran. It has been protected by effective defense systems, which has long been afraid to prevent escalation from the Israel. »
Saudi dancing per wire
Saudi Arabia from 7. October 2023. Balansira, says Sebastian Zones, Gulf Country Expert in the German Trust Brain CARPO.
« The country is committed to a dielogue in this regard, it strive to act as a platform in various conflicts and organized several major representatives, where Iranian representatives were regularly part of the Saudi political model that is based on rapprochement, not to conflict. »
Therefore, the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel was the worst possible scenario. « Because Saudi Arabia then gets in the middle of the storm, and there is a fearful that there could be an attack on the national territory, because there are American troops there. »
There are also concerns that the Islamist paramilitary Hutiese of Yemen, associated with Iran, could restore attacks. In Riyadh, they still resemble the attack of that paramilitary for Saudi Oil Company Aramko in September 2019.
The more decisive Saudi Arabia worked on further development of relations with Iran, says Zons. « In the background is ambition to move from tactical to strategic converting and expand cooperation in several areas, for example security. »
« But Saudi Arabia still does not believe Iran. There is a great distrust of neighbor, which makes the current situation very difficult for predictable for Riyadh, » Zones adds Zones.
Therefore, a particularly significant choice of words used by the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs in critique of Israeli attack, says Schneider.
« What the Ministry of Platform X talks about the attack on ‘Brother’ Iran. The term ‘brother’ or ‘brotherly’ is used only for Arab countries. Saudi Arabia does not want to be perceived as an ally of Israel. »
Concern in Oman and Iraq
And Oman now sees a threat to the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the dispute around the Iran’s nuclear program. This country in the southern top of the Arabian peninsula was a mediator in negotiations between Iran and the United States.
According to the reports of the Agency, the country criticized Israeli action with the assessment that this attack threatens the security and stability of the region. However, negotiations between the United States and Iran, according to everything, should continue. But when, no one knows that.
Concern governs in Iraq. In that country, there is a number of paravojnia associated with Iran, such as cataib Hezbollah. These Shiite groups are closer to the authorities in Tehran than those in Baghdad. Through the political wing of these militia, Iranian influence goes down until Iraqi parliament.
« If Tehran now says that the situation is crucial, they could reach for weapons, » says Schneider.
« They could attack American forces stationed in Iraq or other goals. Therefore, the United States had previously evacuated diplomatic staff. And it shows how many situation in the region is currently unpredictable. »
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