Salvation of Ukraine or colonial diktat? What does the agreement include between Zelensky and Trump, and what are the potential « traps » for Kiev

What did he produce the face to face between Donald Trump And Volodymyr Zelensky Under the naves of San Pietro? The agreement on mineral resources of Ukraine is an act of colonial submission of the country invaded by Russia to its American protector or leaves the hope to Kiev – as the agreement itself states – to be able to remain « free, sovereign and safe »?

The text signed a Washington by the vice premier Yulia Svyrydenko and by the secretary of the American treasure Scott Bessent contain remarkable opportunities for Ukraine, but also some macroscopic traps.

The pitfalls in the agreement

The most conspicuous concerns American military help: the text of the agreement provides that each supply of weapons and other means of defense by Washington will count by way of payment by the American side in the « Investment fund for reconstruction»Comune with Kiev.

Thus passes the principle that American military aid in Kiev are paidbut also that Their cost will change the force relationships in the « Municipality » fund for the exploitation of Ukrainian fossil and mining resources. Or for the development of the country’s infrastructure.

The risk therefore overlooks the The control and profits of the « common » fund are increasingly passing in favor of Trumpby changing the share of capital in favor of Washington and reflected by increasing the ability of America over time of controlling natural riches and Ukraine infrastructures.

The devil will be in the details of the executive agreements, which are still missing. But let’s see point by point.

Point one: China is cut off

First, The agreement seems to aim to cut Russia out but also China from any economic benefit deriving from Ukrainian reconstruction or resources. But he does it only after recognizing, at least in words, the role and aspirations of Ukraine. In fact, we read: « The United States and Ukraine recognize the contribution that Ukraine has led to strengthening international security and peace voluntarily abandoning the wider third nuclear arsenal arsenal ». In other words Zelensky He managed to remember in the agreement that Kiev had to give up the most powerful means of dissuasion on the insistence of the United States, with the 1994 agreements.

To report that the pact is not colonial in nature, the text also stresses that Ukraine « has, based on international law, sovereignty on its natural resources located on its territory ».

Then the clause of penalty of Russia (to which Kiev holds) and China (to whom Washington holds). He says: « The United States and Ukraine intend to ensure that the states and other subjects who acted hostile against Ukraine in the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine after a lasting peace has been achieved ».

So Beijing companies are out of the reconstruction business, at the request of Trump.

Point two: the 50-50 partnership (for now)

A « investment fund for the reconstruction of the United States-Ukraine States is established on these bases in the form of a partnership » on the basis of a division of the capital employed and proceeds to 50% for each of the two parties. But this only for now. We will see soon that The Trump administration reserves the right to change the agreements in its favorwhile denied Kiev the equal right to amend them even in the event of subsequent amendments to the law in Ukraine.

Zelensky managed here to entered – and subscribe to the Americans – important words in terms of principles: «The reconstruction of Ukraine requires not only financial investments, but also structural transformationsinstitutional and technological in line with the democratic values, the principles of the market and the rule of law ». The message is: No abuse, the era of the economy dominated by the oligarchs is over. But Zelensky also gets another important declaration of principle by American: Ukraine and the United States express « the wide strategic alignment long -term among their peoples and their governments and a tangible demonstration of support of the United States to safety, prosperity, reconstruction and integration of Ukraine in the framework of the global economy « . Maybe they are just words, but significant.

Last point: the three (big) concessions to Trump

The White House gets three points in their favor that objectively make the agreement very unbalanced. Let’s see them one by one.

– First of all Each American income or investment in the partnership is free from any tax in Ukrainewith an ad hoc tax privilege treatment of total privilege (as anticipated by Courier on March 26). Trump is committed to the counterpart, his goodness, to « not impose duties » through executive orders of the White House on « any article deriving from market rights on the purchase of production »; In other words, there will be no duties on the minerals that Americans will extract in Ukraine and bring to their country.

– the second large concession obtained by Trump concerns the fact that the current agreement between Kiev And Washington Ukraine wants to make in the future prevails over any change. In essence, Ukraine has hands tied forever, even if its voters in the future asked the government to get out of the agreements with the United States. This is how the text says: « The government of Ukraine ensures that, despite any new Ukrainian legislation, the agreement (on the common fund, editor’s note) will continue in terms of no less favorable terms ». Furthermore – and above all – « in the event of inconsistency between the Ukrainian law and this agreement, this agreement will prevail on this inconsistency ». In short, the pact signed the other day is stronger than the Parliament and the government of Kiev themselves, Even in the future and without time limits: « The agreement will remain in force until the parties agree to end it, » reads the text. But since Ukraine cannot change it by law, it means that the United States can decide to make it last forever. Comment on the Russian-British historian Sergey Radchenko from the Johns Hopkins University: «This is a crazy clause. Even Stalin when he imposed « common companies », for example to China, limited himself to 25-30 years. This is without time limits ».

– Then there is the third and largest concession, relating to military aid. Here it is: «If (after the entry into force of the agreement, editor’s note) the United States government provides the government of Ukraine new military aid in any form (including weapon systems, ammunition, technology or training) – reads the text of the agreement – iThe contribution in the capital (of the Fund, editor’s note) by the United States will be considered increased according to the estimated value of military aid».

In other words, the American share in the partnership at the beginning is 50%, but it seems to be able to get away that the Americans will empty the warehouses of their old weapons by sending them to Kiev, they will train Kiev soldiers or will provide Internet connection via Starlink.

All those « contributions » will make America rise in the capital and control of the fund that will manage all Ukrainian mining resourcesincluding gold, uranium, cobalt, graphite, oil and natural gas. It is an extremely controversial clause, which will be subject to many discussions. All the more reason why the « common fund », that is, the « partnership Kiev-Washington » will also have the right of pre-emption on any investment project in Ukraine, for example on energy or other energy infrastructures. The country therefore risks ending up totally under American control and his future proceeds almost all aspirated in the direction of the United States.

The ratification of the Parliament of Kiev

It will be important to see if the executive merit agreements, still to be signed, will be such as to defuse these risks for Ukraine. And if the exploitation of mining resources will actually prove to be advantageous and economically sustainable: as for this, everything remains see.

Of course On May 8, Kiev’s parliament, Verkhovna Rada, will have to ratify or reject the current agreement. For Zelensky, a test of the fire on which a good part of his political future is played.