Salary and demand growth: why does the economy continue to overheat
Rosstat, like leading indicators of the state of economics, records the continuing increase in salaries and private consumption in the Russian Federation in the first quarter of 2025. This is also indicated by the Bank of Russia, where they still hope for attenuation of overheated demand in the economy to bring inflation to the target of 4% in 2026. However, the assessments of the Ministry of Economy, based on the fresh data of Rosstat, do not yet find a noticeable slowdown in GDP dynamics.
According to operational data Rosstatin January 2025, the growth of real salaries in the economy of the Russian Federation in annual terms continued and amounted to 6.5%. “This is above our expectations,” says Igor Polyakov from the center of macroeconomic analysis and short -term forecasting (TsMAKP). He notes that the nominal salary continues to be indexed in volumes comparable to 2024 (in January it grew by 17.1%).
- The center was calculated that the month, taking into account seasonality in January 2025, real salaries decreased by 1.9% after rapid growth by 3.4% in December 2024 (recall, it was largely associated with increased payments due to the transfer of bonuses associated with the expectation of tax increased since 2025).
- At the same time, against the background of stable unemployment of 2.4% in January -February 2025, according to Mr. Polyakov, the demand for labor (employment plus the number of vacancies) in February “bounced” for 200 thousand people after a failure of 1 million people a month earlier.
At the same time, as analysts of the Ministry of Economics noted, the dynamics of consumer activity in February 2025 as a whole remained stable – given the calendar factor (this year in February it was one working day less than a year ago).
- The total turnover of retail trade, catering and paid services to the population, according to the ministry, in February, in real terms, increased by 2.4% of the year (according to the TsMAKP – by 2.1%) after growth by 5% in January 2025 – this is very close to the dynamics of the Sberryndex and may indicate the continuing increase in real salaries.
- Given the seasonality and calendar, according to Mr. Polyakov, the growth rates of household consumption in February were noticeably accelerated – to plus 0.6% of January after a decline by 0.8% in January 2025 by December 2024 (the Ministry of Economy ceased to publish relevant estimates).
In the division of goods and services, the dynamics of consumption in February -March slowed down non -food products, while the consumption of food and paid services accelerated, which could be explained by raising pensions at the beginning of the year. In March 2025, according to Sberindex, the annual growth rate of private consumption accelerated (see schedule).
Even against the background of compression of consumer lending, the fourth month in a row, the demand of the population remains increased and, most likely, will remain like this due to the postponing of the purchases in anticipation of the reduction in imports due to the strengthening of the ruble.
Another factor in increased demand may be a decrease in the profitability of bank deposits, changing the options for choosing between expenses and savings.
The average maximum rate on individuals deposits up to a year in the TOP-10 banks fell by 57 basic points-up to 20.28% per annum-and 200 basic points from peak values of mid-December 2024. “This is a strong decrease that pose a threat to the outflow of funds from deposits, which, under the current conditions of high inflation and overheated demand, would be undesirable,” said analysts at the MMI Telegram channel. In addition, S&P polls show that industry has returned to an increase in hiring in March, and the Institute of National Economic Forecasting (Inp) of the Russian Academy of Sciences – that this scenario is not implemented only due to the lack of suitable candidates, and this, in turn, will continue to heat up the growth of salaries.
In the Bank of Russia published on April 2 resume to discuss the key rate The regulator notes: overheating of the Russian economy in the first quarter of 2025, probably began to decline (the current inflationary pressure is reduced, the growth of internal demand slows down, there are signs of weakening tension in the labor market), but to talk about the stability of this process and the sufficiency of the current rate of economy cooling to achieve inflation target in 2026. In particular, the Central Bank notes that consumer demand continues to grow increased pace, which is consistent with the data of Inp RAS, according to which the demand for products of industrial enterprises in March began to grow again, as well as business activity as a whole (See “Kommersant” from April 2). According to the Ministry of Economy, the annual GDP growth in February slowed down to 0.8% from 3% in January 2025, but largely thanks to the Buscosy of February 2024.
