Russian mercenaries in Africa: How to reduce their influence? – The world

For years, it seemed impossible to stop this trend: Russian mercenaries managed to establish themselves in more and more African countries, and at the invitation of local governments. At the same time, they secured access to valuable raw materials like gold or tropical wood. The real apparatus was created in parallel, through which prophetic positions were placed in public discourse. Numerous states are so faster and increasingly emancipated from the former Western colonial powers – and received a new partner in Vladimir Putin and His Russia.

But that Russian success story slowly « shoots »: in July 2024. The Russian mercenaries suffered severe losses after members of the Tuarega rebel forces in the north of Malija, near the town of Tinzaouaten made an ambush. And in Africa, there was a big topic when the ASAD’s regime in Syria was fallen in December last year, ie when Russia thus lost its influence in that country. The image of Jaka Russia has been violated, and reports on human rights violations are often heard by Russian mercenaries.

What do Russian mercenaries play in Africa?

One current analysis of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GI)

It provides insight into the activities of Russian paid groups in Africa – and provides recommendations to African governments and the international community on how to reduce their impact, ie engagement. These are, among other things, these recommendations:

• integration instead of insulation of states in which Russian mercenaries are present

• Diplomatic pressure on Russian logistical partners

• Coordinated sanctions against Russian mercenaries

• Extensive measures against Russian misinformation

• More support in combating prohibited economic activities

The involvement of Russian mercenaries in crimes, ie their closeness with prohibited jobs undermine security in Africa, writes analyst of GI Julia Staniard initiative. « A few years ago, they are documented that those in Sudani use their access to airports to smuggle larger amounts of gold from that country, » she says in an interview for DW. « Similar activities are noticeable in the Central African Republic, and they are smallly those present near the mine. In countries where they are active, they have a dominant role when it comes to smuggling ore treasure. »

Sanctions or cooperation?

It is especially a complicated situation in the West of Africa, where the countries of Sahela (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger) left the Ecowas Ecovas Economic Union and established their own Sahel Sahelian Alliance AES. The recommendation of Julije Staniard is that there are bridges, and communication, at least in the field of security and issues related to that sector, it is built in this regard.

This opinion shares Beverly Osheng. With the program of Africa in the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in the area of ​​Western and Central Africa, « despite their reserves, for example, in relation to undemocratic governments, they must find ways to cooperate with them (Sahelian Alliance). When founding the The rebel, Ecowas contacted Military Commander in the Sahel area. They block it, but in the long run, it would be the strategic wet road to be under control, « says Oceeng for DW.

Osheng also believes that the Alliance of AES could see that Russian security situation, « they may not consider other options that the paramilitary instructors of that country are intensified. The whole region must think about how they oppose the rebels, especially without western support. « 

Troubled logistics

Russian security services in Africa have experienced a strong transformation in recent years: At the very beginning, private army Vagner was headed by Jevgeni’s fighters prone to risky operations, for example in the Central African Republic. During 2023. year, the influential decoration opposed Putin, after which, according to the Russian authorities, he died – in the mysterious fall of the plane. Since then, the Russian Ministry of Defense controls most of the Vagner and mercenary under the name « African Corps » integrates into its structures.

Experts are just observing a new restructuring of larger proportions. Due to the change in the Mode in Syria, Russians can no longer use military bases that were important for Russian operations in Africa. That is why it is now a good time to further increase the diplomatic pressure on Russian logistical partners, it is considered analyst Julia Staniard.

Lately, as a traffic hub, an increasingly important eastern Libya, controlled by the Prourred General Kalifa Haftar. But Russia has yet to set new bases in which equipment could be stored. « There are already talks about a military base in Sudan, it could be a solution, but in a longer rock, » Stananda considers.

Beverly Osheng, however, believes that Russia will thanks to their numerous « representative offices » and networking in Africa succeed in finding new roads and alternative solutions. In January, they managed to transfer to a small larger consignment of military vehicles and equipment by sea through Guinea. It just shows how many open corridors have Russian paramilitary forces, regardless of whether it is ports, air or terrestrial traffic, without intervening the African institution or government « , notes Osheng.

Role of war in Ukraine

Overall, looking, the character of the activities of Russian mercenaries in Africa will probably be changed. Julija Staniard believes that due to the new mission of the troops, it could be a problem with the recruitment of new mercenaries: « In the last few weeks, there were interests of recruiting new members of the African Corps. There are advertisements on the Internet, they should animate people to apply. »

Beverly Osheng also reminds them on a factor that is admittedly in a further future, but it could also greatly influence the accession of the mercenaries in Africa. Namely, if a peace agreement is concluded in Ukraine, then the staff of the troops could be solved, that the African Corps would be practical in Ukraine, instead of their rehabilitation and re-integration. But it should be, because peace is still very far away. «