Russian expert Ulrich Schmid about Putin, Trump and the future of Ukraine
interview
« Putin knows that the time window for its war goals closes more and more »
With the rocket attack on civilians in Sumy, Russia’s war against Ukraine has achieved a new escalation level. Russia expert Ulrich Schmid explains why peace is currently a pure illusion and which is why Donald Trump does not take harder towards Vladimir Putin.
Negotiations on ceasefire or peace in Ukraine – if at all – only slowly go forward. It looks like US President Donald Trump is slowly frustrated. Do you see that too?
Ulrich Schmid: Definitely. However, Trump does not even know whether he is actually about peace in Ukraine. Or rather for the Nobel Peace Prize for itself.
Which variant do you tend?
Neither of the two. I think Trump has now realized that peace in Ukraine is unrealistic. Especially in the period he set himself. Trump once fabuled from 24 hours, then it turned 100 and later 180 days. Last week he said « Not Bad » was going on during the negotiations. However, if it was really « not bad », he would have said in his effective manner that the situation was « Terrific ».
« Putin always said yes and meant no. »
They say that there is no real strategy in the peace negotiations. Why not?
Quite simply because Putin doesn’t even want a ceasefire. This was recently seen in the agreed armistice for energy infrastructure: Putin always said yes and meant no. It comes with a variety of additional conditions that are impossible for its contractual partners.
Russia expert Ulrich Schmid.
Ulrich Schmid is a professor of Eastern European studies at the University of St. Gallen (HSG). In his research, he deals in particular with Russian, Ukrainian and Polish culture as well as nationalism in Eastern Europe. Schmid is considered one of the most famous Russia experts in Switzerland.
The US specialist Steve Witkoff has met with Vladimir Putin several times in the past few weeks. The last meeting lasted over four hours. Is Witkoff the right man?
To do this, it must be said that Keith Kellogg was originally the US special representative for Russia and Ukraine. However, Kellogg wants to freeze the conflict, which is completely unacceptable for the Russians. Trump has been bent on pressure of the Kremlin and degraded Kellogg to the pure Ukraine representative. Successor Witkoff clearly belongs to the Russia -friendly camp. He and Trump repeat that Putin wanted peace, even though there are no signs at all.
« As the one who has reunited the Russian countries, Putin wants to go into the history books. »
By “freezing the conflict”, do you think that you wait until Putin is no longer in power?
Exactly. The meaning behind it is to work on a solution that is accepted for both sides that is realized in a post-potin era. This is out of the question under Putin. He connected his political fate to this war. Putin wants to complete his historical mission and, as the one who has reunited the Russian countries, go down in the history books.
Although Trump belongs to the Russia -friendly camp, he seems to lose patience. Why doesn’t the United States just tighten the sanctions?
The now degraded Keith Kellogg already proposed this at the beginning of the year. When you see how carefree Trump is offset by allies, he has amazing bite inhibitions towards Putin. There are very efficient sanctions.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump beg-20 summits in Hamburg, July 7, 2017.
What interest in an armistice or even peace are the United States and Trump? Are they soil treasures like the rare earths?
The rare earths are a fixed idea of Trump. Of course there are these rare earths in Ukraine. However, you don’t even know whether dismantling is worth it at all. The United States argued that they could dismantle rare earths with American companies in eastern Ukraine, then the Russians would no longer attack there. Military support from Ukraine is no longer needed. But that too is completely blue -eyed.
« Ukraine would be delivered to the USA to generations. »
What about the raw material agreement that the US promises access to Ukrainian raw materials such as the rare earths mentioned in return for military support?
The fact that you ask this question is an expression of the chaotic and leaking policy of the Trump administration. It was already absurd that the raw material agreement came on the table at all. Trumps said Agenda is to create peace in Ukraine. However, this raw material deal has nothing to do with peace. The United States wants to bring the costs of its military support for Ukraine back in. Ukraine would be delivered to the United States to generations. The raw material agreement is another fog petard from Trump to distract from the failure of a quick peace.
They said earlier that Russia has no willingness to do without ceasefire or peace. Then there is only a so -called dictation peace, over the head of Ukraine.
That’s so. Putin specifically mentioned the conditions on the eve of the Bürgenstock conference. The Ukrainian army must withdraw from the areas in eastern Ukraine, which Russia annexed in autumn 2022. In addition, Ukraine must not join NATO, it has to be “denazified”, that is, there must be a change of government.
To do this, the rights of the Russian -speaking minority in Ukraine must be guaranteed and the borders of the Russian Federation are recognized internationally. Plus the cancellation of the sanctions. From the perspective of Russia, there is nothing to negotiate. The European countries, in turn, would never accept this kind of peace.
« Medvedev is the chain dog that tears on the chain, barks and threatens with nuclear strikes and attacks on NATO countries. »
Germany’s designated Chancellor Friedrich Merz reaffirmed again last week that the delivery of the Taurus marching aircraft and the destruction of the Crimean Bridge were an option. Dmitri Medledew, the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, warned Merz last year and has now written on X: « Think again, Nazi! » Is that serious to take?
Well, that is currently the task of Medvedev. He is the chain dog that tears, barks on the chain and threatens with nuclear strikes and attacks on NATO countries. There are rhetorical and strategic reasons. Peaking around Medvedev can make Putin appear modest in western media.
Chancellor Candidate Fritz Merz is haunted by the memory of his father, who served in Hitler’s Wehrmacht. Now merz has suggested a strike on the crimean bridge. Think Twice, Nazi!
– Dmitry Medvedev (@Medvedevrussiae) April 14, 2025
What if Merz really delivers Taurus?
Military experts say that this is not the gamuchanger who tilts the war in favor of Ukraine. There are many open questions. We don’t even know whether the Taurus marching aircraft should actually attack goals deep inside Russia.
Russia’s wear rate is immense. The question arises more and more how long Putin can still maintain the war. How firm does the deep oil price have been harmful to him since Trump’s punishment for punishment?
It harms him very much. The Russian state budget expects an oil price of $ 70 per barrel Brent. According to Trump’s customs hammer, the price in the meantime was $ 58, currently we are $ 67, but according to the forecasts, the oil price can fall again. Russia can continue to sell raw materials in enormous amounts, but no longer at the price like before the war.
This costs him around $ 120 billion a year. The economic situation of Russia is an enormous problem that Putin cannot go through forever. Of course, he denies this against the outside. He knows very well that the time window is becoming more and more close to reaching its war goals.
“When the Russian military campaigns stalled, Putin started with blows on civilian infrastructure and accepted civilian victims. However, this strategy does not work. »
On Palm Sunday, over 30 civilians died in a Russian attack on the city of Sumy. Ten days earlier, the hometown of President Selenski, 19 people, including 9 children, were killed in an attack on Krywyj Rih. It was the deadliest individual attack on children since the outbreak of war. What does Putin want to achieve with such war crimes?
They are an expression of a cruel cynicism that can be observed in Moscow. Since the outbreak of war, it has been repeated that only military facilities in Ukraine are attacked. At the same time, it is the highlight of a tactic that the Kremlin has been pursuing since autumn 2022. At that time there was a successful counter -offensive in Ukraine, where very wide areas were freed. When the Russian military campaigns stalled, Putin started with blows on civilian infrastructure and accepted civilian victims. However, this strategy does not work.
Over 30 civilians died in the rocket attacks on Sumy. More than 100 were injured.
