Russian exercises planned around Lithuania: The army is soothing

The last Russian exercise Zapad took place in 2021. Obviously, the Zapad was preparing for an invasion of Ukraine. Russian troops transferred to Belarus returned to Russia after the exercise and, after five months, rushed to Kyjiv.

New Zapad exercises are planned this fall. Traditionally, there will be everywhere Russia borders NATO: in Russia itself, Kaliningrad, Belarus, the Baltic Sea.

The army does not see military threats to Lithuania during the Russian exercise Zapad.

« According to the information available, there is no such risk and threat at the moment. The assessment would probably be that it is not a greater threat than the last Zapad, which was in 2021, » said Remigijus Baltrėnas, Chief of the Armed Forces Defense Staff.

The German publication Bild announces the consideration of a well -known German war reviewer that Russian military action can cross Lithuanian borders this fall.

Photo by O. Gurevicius / ELTA

The Lithuanian Armed Forces emphasizes that all NATO intelligence is based.

« It is difficult enough to assemble forces because Russia seems to have soldiers – there are conscripts who do not participate in hostilities, but there are unlikely to see the Estonian borders we have seen at the Estonian borders, » said Egidijus Papečkys.

Intelligence has proclaimed that while the Russian attention is focused on Ukraine, it is difficult for them to accumulate stocks.

« As the needs of the front decrease, Russia will begin to accumulate armament and ammunition supplies, which would require a direct military conflict with NATO, » said Elegijus Paulavičius, Director of the Second Department of Operational Services.

Even after stopping the war in Ukraine, the Russians should have a confrontation with NATO, according to intelligence, after 3-5 years.

« I wouldn’t really expect bigger threats from Zapad this year. There may be some very small provocations, but again, we should not talk about military, ”stressed E. Papečkys.

According to the military, as before, this year, the main threat will be the increased risk of unintentional incidents.

« When the border is close to the polygons – Kaliningrad, Belarus close to the Lithuanian border – always called the risk of unintentional, » said R. Baltrėnas.

The Russians always hide the true scale of Zapad. Before the exercise, the minimum number of international consensus – several thousand troops – indicates.

« They were always exceeded, always more. It was covered by Russian troops, who were previously sent to train to Belarus, » said the Chief of the Armed Forces Defense Staff.

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Similarly with future exercises.

« In November, Belarus officially declared that this training would take place. It is declared that it can be up to 12-13 thousand, » the headquarters chief said.

After the last Zapad exercises, the Russians themselves confirmed the participation of 200,000. soldiers.

The Russians call the Baltic States fascist and supposedly « Zapad » is a defensive, « anti -terrorist » exercise.

According to the previous Zapad scenario, the Russians were training to occupy the Corridor of Suwalki, that is, part of Lithuania, to declare here the alleged state – Veisnory. At the same time, attack Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the Scandinavian countries in the hope of frightening their support.

Later, the Russians would threaten a nuclear weapon, although NATO estimates would not hesitate.

« This is not only a Lithuanian intelligence data, but a general picture of all allies. I think that painting is clear enough – at that time we do not expect it, but we are ready, alert and monitoring the situation, » said Giedrimas Jeglinskas, chairman of the National Security and Defense Committee.

There is no doubt that what the Russians will certainly do during Zapad will certainly scare, intensify propaganda, diversions. According to the military, intelligence has a lot of indicators, how to see if the exercise is going on, whether the war is being prepared, how to provide soldiers, and what camps are being created.

« The processes do not occur quickly. Even if the ceasefire is going, the transfer of capacity is time -consuming and those capacity transfer would not go unnoticed, » explained R. Baltrėnas.

Traditionally, when the Russians are organizing Zapad, NATO is organizing a lot of exercises around Lithuania. This will also happen this fall.