Russian drug market: growth, public procurement and forecasts for the future
According to the results of 2024, the farm market in Russia has grown nominally – according to the DSM Group annual report, in money by 10%, up to 2.85 trillion rubles. The real increase was provided by the commercial sector – sales in it increased by 13.8%, but purchases of drugs in the state committee – only 2.6%, significantly lower than inflation, amid limiting the increase in prices for vital drugs. At the same time, the experts diverged in estimates of the trend for the next year – the civil orders can support the launch of new national projects, and the commercial segment – drug inflation.
According to the results of 2024, the Russian market of drugs increased by 10%, to 2.85 trillion rubles. The main factor in growth, as noted by DSM Group analysts in their report “Pharmaceutical Market of Russia-2024”, was the demand from individuals in the pharmacy segment.
- The hospitals accounted for 33% of the market – this share includes hospital and preferential medicinal support (including the programs “14 high -cost nosologies” and “Providing the necessary drugs” (ONLS)) and the purchase of regions for certain categories of patients entitled to preferential drugs.
- The nominal growth of this segment in money was only 2.6%by the results of the year, significantly lower than inflation.
- The lag of the dynamics of public procurement from the growth of sales in the commercial sector has been preserved for several years, reducing the state share: in 2021 it was 9 percentage points higher (42%).
As noted in the report, the “restrained growth” in the state committee is associated with the low possibility of indexing the prices of drugs, as most of them are included in the List of the GUNLP, and the pharmaceutical companies are required to coordinate their cost with the Ministry of Health.
- In addition, in 2024, the volume of financing of preferential programs decreased – by 3.6% by “14 highly cost nosologies” (82.8 billion rubles), by 7.4% of the regional benefit (185.6 billion rubles).
- The financing of the purchase of drugs for ONLS remained at the level of 2023 and amounted to 48.1 billion rubles.
- In total, the segment of the preferential drug support “sag” by 5.5% in monetary terms (up to 315 billion rubles) and 10.3% in packages (up to 4.3 million pieces).
“We really see interruptions in the supply of drugs in the framework of“ 14 nosologies ”and in the segment of regional benefits. We associate this with a lack of budget, on the one hand, and with producers’ attempts to increase the cost of individual drugs – on the other, ”said the co -chair of the All -Russian Union of Patients, Yuri Zhulev.
The financing of hospital procurement increased by 9%, up to 438 million packages of drugs by 503 billion rubles.
A significant contribution to this increase, apparently, was made at the expense of the federal project “The fight against cancer” (146.3 billion rubles) – last year it was fully executed.
Pharmacy sales grew with a two -digit pace (by 13.8%). As a result, the market volume increased to 4.4 billion packs, or 1.635 trillion rubles. As the head of the DSM Group, Sergei Shulyak, explains, the “additional” market growth was provided by a high incidence of seasonal SARS and influenza in early 2024. “Already in March 2024, the volume of pharmacy consumption of drugs returned to the usual indicators, and other factors, to a greater extent price, have already influenced the dynamics,” the expert notes.
The DSM Group expects that in 2025 the total volume of the drug market will pass through a bar of 3 trillion rubles. At the same time, the planned financing of state programs and national projects in the healthcare sector will be 1 trillion rubles, we can expect an increase in public procurement in different segments of drug provision by 20%. As a result, the share of the public sector in the market can grow to 36%. The commercial market, according to the prediction of the DSM Group, will grow within 9-10%, comparable to inflation.
However, Alexey Trading, Deputy General Director for Corporate Relations and Communications, believes that the dynamics of 2025 will be closer to 2024: “The main driver, in our opinion, will be a retail segment, which will increase by about 15%. The public procurement market will show modest growth – about 5%. We assume that in this segment the main drivers will be the federal benefit (about 5%), the regional benefit (5%), and the budget (hospital) segment will grow by 1-3%. ” It also predicts a long -term trend for a slowdown in the market growth rate – up to 5-6% in 2025–2028.
