Russia increases NATO military activities in the Baltic Sea / Day

The risk assessment released by the Service and last year’s activities explains that Russia is implementing demonstrations and provocations such as unauthorized airspace border violation, aggressive approaches to aircraft and ships of NATO members, thereby increasing the threat of accidental military incidents.

The purpose of these provocations is likely to intimidate and test a potential opponent. At the same time, attempts to discredit the reactions and defense capabilities of the countries of the region are not excluded, Midd points out.

The intelligence service reveals that in the framework of the Reform of the Russian Armed Forces, the Western Military Area adjacent to the Latvian border in 2024 was reorganized, instead creating the Leningrad and Moscow warfare. Formally, this is Russia’s response to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, Midd explains.

The newly formed Leningrad War Area is responsible for the Northwest Strategic Direction, which covers the Baltic States and Scandinavia. Meanwhile, the Moscow Military Area is responsible for the direction of Central Europe and partly in Ukraine and is likely to work closely with the Belarusian armed forces, the report said.

The MIDD also points out that, along with the war in Ukraine, Russia has, at least formally, launching new units and redirecting existing units in accordance with the declared armed forces reform plan. For example, Karelia has a new army corps, but for Latvia, the 6th general troops in the army, both in the two motorsport brigades, are transformed into divisions. It is planned to reform the division of the Baltic Navy Marine Brigade, located in Kaliningrad’s exclusion.

The intelligence report explains that the creation or expansion of new units does not yet mean a real increase in forces near the borders of Latvia, as most of Russia’s military resources are still channeled to Ukraine.

Midd also emphasizes that the main priority of the Land Forces is the training of mobilized staff, reservists and contracts before sending to the war zone. The Service has concluded that special attention is paid to the use of different types of unmanned aircraft systems in the training process.

On the other hand, the main activities of air forces and air defense units are related to intelligence, power demonstration and the fight against Ukraine’s unmanned aircraft systems and rockets broadcast on the depths of the Russian territory. The MIDD concluded that during three years of war, Russia has failed to fully ensure the protection of its territory against this type of threat.

The report also states that, after a full -scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian armed forces are limited not only by strategic but also operational tactical levels, which is likely to be related to the lack of staff and military equipment.

This year, Russia and Belarus are planning to organize a common strategic training « Zapad-2025 », which is based on the territory of Belarus, but the scale and the area covered will largely depend on the situation in Russia’s war against Ukraine, the service points out.

As reported, the MIDD report also explained that it will be increasingly difficult for Russia to return to peace -time economy in the middle and long, which in turn creates internal demand to maintain aggressive foreign policy and to continue arming.

The MIDD points out that there is a major military reform in Russia, where it is planned to increase the numerical composition of the armed forces from one to one and a half million soldiers. The most significant changes are planned in the Western strategic direction.

« It is likely that it will take several years to achieve complete reform goals, possibly even a decade, but the numerical composition of the Russian armed forces is expected to grow in the Latvian border, with the reduction of warfare in Ukraine, » the service assesses.

At the same time, the service emphasizes that in the current circumstances, Russia has no military capacity for another strategic level for land operation.