Rosstat recorded a noticeable subsidence of industrial production in January
Rosstat recorded a significant subsidence of industrial production – by 3.2% in January 2025 by December 2024 – after growth by 2.3% for December and 0.3% for November 2024, taking into account seasonality. In annual terms, the growth of industrial production in January slowed to 2.2% against 8.2% in December and 3.5% in November. Vladimir Salnikov from the center of macroeconomic analysis and short -term forecasting (TsMAKP) says that such a January result was expected against the background of a “technical jump in December, where there were a lot of defense and closing orders”. He notices that this January decrease “blocked” the December ruff and industry was reflected in the level of release of the beginning of the fall of 2024. In addition, Mr. Salnikov fixes that the weather was included in the negative result of January at 0.3 percentage points. “The conjuncture due to the tough DCP was supposed to affect the plans of the companies, and this could be laid in their programs,” the expert adds. As a result, according to his estimates, not a single growing segment, except for chemistry, is not left in industry, and the greatest deterioration was recorded in the auto industry and construction. “For three months, more than 6% is a very noticeable correction,” concludes Vladimir Salnikov.
Recall that a noticeable deterioration of moods in the sector and a decrease in demand in industry to a 27-month minimum in January 2025 previously indicated the situation of companies made by the Institute of People's Economic Forecasting (Inp RAS, See “Kommersant” from February 3). February estimates record that the decrease in optimism has ceased, and the consolidated index grew by three points due to the modest positive dynamics of all survey indicators. The updated Inp RAS According to February 25, the industry forecast index after the December local minimum is improved for the second month in a row (see schedule). In particular, sales forecasts improved by 11 points, after from April to December 2024 they lost 17 points, and release plans after the local November minimum (plus five points) over the next three months increased to plus 11 points (local – plus 30 points in November 2023). Meanwhile, “there is nowhere to get the growth of industry, it is good if there is no strong decline”, they are convinced of the Central Department Store.
